USD: September seasonality in play? – ING

The dollar is drifting higher in quiet conditions. Weekend news about US tariffs being ruled illegal has not had much impact so far. US Treasury yields have been marked a couple of basis points higher, and US equity futures are slightly lower, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

97.50 DXY support appears to be holding

"The focus this week is on US labour market data, with the next important input being tomorrow's JOLTS job opening data. First up, though, we get an update on the manufacturing sector today. Expectations are for a modest rise in ISM business confidence to 49.0, but still weak. There will be some latent interest in both the prices paid and the employment component, but we doubt this data will be a major determinant of dollar direction this week."

"The second factor could be seasonal dollar strength. US corporates have a big tax date on 15 September, where dollar payments occasionally cause ripples in US money markets. This was the case in 2019. We note as well that the DXY dollar index has rallied in seven of the last 10 Septembers. In short, it may not be one-way traffic to a lower dollar this September despite the prospect of softer employment figures and the looming Fed rate cut."

"97.50 DXY support appears to be holding, and more range trading may be the order of the day."