Polymarket accurately predicted Israel’s strike on Iran

Prediction market Polymarket saw bets pointing toward military action against Iran 2 days before Israeli fighter jets launched a preemptive strike across the country early Friday. Wagers on the platform yesterday showed a 60% probability of an Israeli assault on Iran.

After news of the strikes broke, several new bets were published on the platform leaning towards an Iranian retaliation. Polymarket odds showed only a 12% chance the conflict would subside by next Friday, while the likelihood of Iran declaring war on Israel within the same timeframe fell to 33% after reaching 55% in the early hours of Friday.

The attack is one of the most profound Israeli military operations in years, targeting dozens of nuclear and military sites across Iran. Israeli officials have called the events “missions to preserve our existence.” Odds of Israel declaring war on Iran in the next week are now at 25%.

Multiple strikes across Iran, including nuclear facility at Natanz

“More than 100 targets have been struck across Iran,” said IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari during a live briefing Friday morning. “Over 330 munitions have been deployed as part of a precise and synchronized operation.”

Among the targets was Iran’s uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, located in central Iran. Iranian state media confirmed the facility was hit multiple times, releasing footage of thick black smoke rising from the site.

The Natanz facility has thousands of advanced centrifuges used to enrich uranium. The extent of the damage to the underground infrastructure is not known, although Israeli officials said the operation focused on “military targets and targets from the nuclear program.”

In Tehran, multiple videos taken around 3:30 a.m. local time showed fire and smoke engulfing buildings in the northern part of the capital. In one clip, a man can be heard saying, “The time is 3:37 a.m. An apartment complex has been struck.”

Daylight footage verified by CNN showed emergency responders pulling bodies from the rubble of collapsed residential buildings and searching for survivors. The New York Times, citing senior Iranian officials, reported that six military bases in the Tehran area were struck, along with the homes of high-ranking officers.

Iranian commanders killed, Khamenei promises ‘severe punishment’

Iranian authorities confirmed that Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Mohammad Bagheri, chief of staff of Iran’s military, were killed in the attacks. State media outlet Nour News also reported that Ali Shamkhani, a close adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was critically injured.

Khamenei issued a press response Friday morning, accusing Israel of war crimes and warning of consequences.

“By God’s will, the powerful hand of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic will not let Israel go unpunished,” Khamenei said in a statement to the Iranian people. “The regime must expect severe punishment.”

He added, “Israel has opened its dirty and bloody hand to a crime against Iran, revealing its evil nature more than ever by striking residential centers.”

An Iranian military spokesperson, in support of Khamenei asserted that “Israel and the United States will pay a heavy price for an unprovoked preemptive strike.” 

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has absolved the West from the conflict, telling the media: “The United States was not involved in these strikes and did not provide assistance.”

In an interview with Fox News, President Donald Trump also denied any American involvement in the Israeli strikes on Iran. Rumors of a US involvement are likely to have come from the chatter around Washington’s troubles with Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

“Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb, and we are hoping to get back to the negotiating table. We will see,” Trump said. He added that the United States would support Israel in the event of an Iranian retaliation.

According to the White House, Trump is scheduled to convene a meeting of the National Security Council on Friday morning, US time, to assess the situation.

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