Treasurys and money markets wait on US-China trade talks results

Markets didn’t react on Wednesday after the United States and China wrapped up two days of trade talks in London with a vague agreement that left investors frozen.

The deal, announced late Tuesday, didn’t come with any clear terms or promises. Instead, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer would be heading back to Washington to “make sure President Trump approves” the trade framework.

That was it. No text. No timeline. Just a pitch to the president. The update came as investors also waited for May’s consumer inflation numbers, which are expected to land later this week.

According to data from Reuters, futures tied to the S&P 500 fell 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 66 points. On the crypto side, Bitcoin and Ethereum didn’t move.

Traders stayed cautious. There was no sense of relief, no excitement, just a deadpan market trying to figure out what this deal actually means.

Currency traders hold off as inflation and bond auction loom

The dollar did basically nothing. It dropped 0.1% against the euro at $1.1438, and rose 0.1% versus the yen, landing at 144.93. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, didn’t budge from 98.993.

China’s yuan barely twitched, holding at 7.1849 per dollar in onshore trading. None of the big FX pairs moved enough to tell any story. That’s how little impact the London meeting had.

Economists warned that even if Washington and China managed to avoid another round of open conflict, the tariffs that could result from this “deal” are likely to be worse than what was in place last year.

And the data that’s currently available doesn’t even show the full damage from the last few rounds of threats and walk-backs. There’s more pain hiding in the pipeline.

In the UK, traders are waiting on a spending review that could change the budget picture for the next decade. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is getting ready to allocate over £2 trillion (around $2.7 trillion) across departments from 2026 to 2029, with extra investment plans through 2030.

The British pound stayed flat at $1.349, while gilt yields rose fast—up 7 basis points to 4.598%, compared to a 1 basis point rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury, which reached 4.49%.

Fed expected to pause again as investors eye inflation print

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its next meeting. A poll by Reuters showed most analysts don’t expect the central bank to make any changes until September. Bond traders aren’t betting on July either. The mood is wait-and-see.

Gold ticked up, but just slightly. Spot gold gained 0.4%, trading at $3,336.20 an ounce as of 09:46 GMT, while U.S. gold futures hit $3,347. That’s not a huge move, but it shows traders are still hedging against whatever might come from inflation or central bank action.

One major event markets are bracing for is a $39 billion auction of 10-year Treasury notes later in the day. With so many concerns about the U.S. deficit and rising government debt, investors are demanding higher premiums for long-term bonds. Foreign demand is especially critical now, and if it doesn’t show up, yields could shoot higher fast.

Right now, the 10-year Treasury yield is up by 2 basis points at 4.494%. The 2-year yield has surged 1.5 basis points to trade at 4.027%, and the 30-year yield climbed 2 basis points to 4.377%.

The next big test is the U.S. CPI data for May, which could show the early effects of tariffs on consumer prices. The median forecast puts headline inflation up 0.2% and core inflation up 0.3%.

That would push annual inflation to 2.5% and 2.9%, respectively. But anything hotter than that would kill off any lingering hope for a rate cut, and could trigger a sharp bond selloff.

So far, markets aren’t betting on a cut in June or July, and current pricing shows about a 60% chance of a September move. But with trade policy still in limbo and inflation data still unknown, nobody’s taking big positions.

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