Analyst Says Bitcoin ETFs Could Triple Gold. What Does It Mean for BTC Price?

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas says Bitcoin ETFs will eventually hold three times as much money as gold ETFs. At today’s levels, that is a huge call. 

Global gold ETFs held about $615 billion at the end of August. Three times that would put Bitcoin ETF assets near $1.85 trillion, roughly 19 times from current levels.

If the Bloomberg analyst is right, how much will Bitcoin price potentially gain?

3 Reasons Why Bitcoin ETFs Can Catch Gold

Balchunas points to three forces behind his forecast:

• Bitcoin has the younger investor base. A 2026 Pew survey found 26% of Americans aged 18–29 and 28% aged 30–49 had used crypto, compared with just 10% of people over 50. Balchunas expects that younger group to control more wealth over time.
• Institutional money still has room to grow. Professional investors accounted for about 21% of US Bitcoin ETF assets in Q1. Investment advisers held the equivalent of 150,000 BTC, while bank exposure had quadrupled year-on-year.
• Bitcoin ETFs have a powerful distribution machine. US funds have attracted about $54.6 billion in net inflows since launch, helped by issuers including BlackRock and Fidelity pushing Bitcoin through traditional investment channels.

Yes. Here’s why: 1) btc leans younger, gold older 2) it will get used more by big money as it matures and settles down w both vol and corr 3) way more enthusiasm and sales firepower. no one is out there talking about gold ETFs but you got dozens of wholesalers (fluent in both… https://t.co/bHBBuNkXLf

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) September 17, 2026

What Would That Mean for Bitcoin’s Price?

There is no clean formula. ETF assets rise through both new investment and Bitcoin price gains. But simple scenario math shows the scale required. US funds currently hold about 1.26 million BTC. 

If their Bitcoin holdings doubled to 2.52 million coins and ETF assets reached $1.85 trillion, Bitcoin would need to trade near $732,000. 

If ETF holdings tripled to 3.78 million BTC, the implied price falls to about $488,000.

That gives an illustrative range of roughly $490,000 to $730,000, or about 6–10 times today’s price.

It is not a price target. Gold ETF assets can keep growing, and Bitcoin funds could accumulate far more coins. 

But Balchunas’ prediction, if it happens anywhere near current gold valuations, would require a Bitcoin market fundamentally larger than today’s.