CryptoQuant says Strategy readies for bear market by cutting Bitcoin purchases
CryptoQuant noted that Strategy’s move from aggressive Bitcoin buying to a more conservative, liquidity-focused treasury approach comes amid Bitcoin’s largest drawdown of 2025.
“Strategy’s Bitcoin buying has collapsed through 2025,” CryptoQuant noted in a Wednesday report, noting a dramatic monthly reduction in Bitcoin buys by Strategy since late 2024.
CryptoQuant reports that the company’s monthly purchases decreased from 134,000 BTC at the 2024 peak to just 9,100 BTC in November 2025, with only 135 BTC so far this month. According to the data analytics firm, the 24-month buffer is a clear indication that Strategy is bracing for the bear market.
On November 17th, Strategy acquired 8,178 BTC for approximately $835.5 million, its largest purchase since July, bringing its total holdings to 649,870 BTC, valued at approximately $58.7 billion at the time of writing.
The firm has been the subject of intense speculation over the last several months following a downturn in the crypto market and the unwinding of the BTC proxy trade, which included digital asset treasury companies that accumulate crypto and mining operations.
Strategy secures $1.4B cash reserve
Just a few weeks ago, Strategy CEO Phong Le said the company might sell some of its Bitcoin to cover debt costs, but only if its stock falls below net asset value (NAV) or if it loses access to financing.
The company has also set aside a $1.4 billion cash reserve to cover dividend payments and debt obligations. This reserve is expected to provide a 12-month runway, with plans to expand it to cover 24 months, the company added.
Strategy’s attempt to join major stock market indexes has faced obstacles.MSCI, which sets eligibility criteria for many of these indexes, has suggested a policy change that would bar treasury companies holding 50% or more of their balance-sheet assets in digital assets.
The directive would cut off firms like Strategy from the passive inflows that come with index inclusion. Michael Saylor, the co-founder of Strategy, recently stated that Strategy is engaging with MSCI regarding the proposed policy change, which is set to take effect in January.
Bitcoin bounces to align with industry cost benchmarks
Bitcoin is closely monitored with the Difficulty Regression Model, according to checkonchain. This model estimates the all-in sustaining production cost for the network. The model treats mining difficulty as a distilled measure of mining price, as it incorporates all major operational variables into a single figure.
This provides an industry-wide estimate of the average cost to produce one Bitcoin, eliminating the need for detailed assumptions about hardware, energy expenses, or logistics.
This model is currently priced at approximately $92,300, roughly the same as Bitcoin’s spot price. Bitcoin tumbled briefly to around $80,000 but has since come back to the model.
When Bitcoin moves above the model, then it tends to signal a bull market; when its price moves beneath it, it often indicates a bear market. In April 2025, Bitcoin dropped to $76,000, but was supported at the model’s value. Bitcoin was traded roughly 50% above the model for the majority of 2025; in 2024, however, prices stayed closer to it. Bitcoin was quoted as much as 50% below the model during the 2022 bear market. In previous bull markets, it has soared far above the model — doubling its price at the 2021 peak and five times the model’s value in 2017. As Bitcoin matures into an asset, premiums near those levels seem a thing of the past.
Overall, the model suggests Bitcoin is currently priced near its production cost, which can be interpreted as a fair value zone. Metcalfe’s based valuations also place bitcoin near fair value around $90,000, reinforcing that assessment.
Sharpen your strategy with mentorship + daily ideas - 30 days free access to our trading program
Recommended Articles
