Ethereum Longs at Risk? Analyst Warns of Recurring Weekly Liquidation Pattern

Ethereum (ETH) recently broke through to a new all-time high above $4,900 before undergoing a correction. As of now, the asset trades at $4,520, reflecting an 8.9% pullback from its peak but still up 7.6% over the past week.

The move follows weeks of strong upward momentum that returned ETH to price levels unseen since the 2021 bull cycle. While Ethereum’s long-term trend remains upward, analysts are examining short-term patterns to explain the market’s current volatility.

One such perspective comes from XWIN Research Japan, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, highlighting how recurring liquidation cycles are shaping ETH’s price action, particularly around the beginning of each week.

Ethereum’s “Monday Trap” and the Risks of Excessive Leverage

According to the analysis, Ethereum’s leveraged markets show a recurring rhythm tied to liquidation events. Leveraged long positions, bets that the price will continue rising, have often been caught in sudden reversals, forcing liquidations that amplify downward moves.

During April and June 2025, ETH saw long liquidations spike beyond 300,000 ETH in a single day as sharp downturns triggered cascading sell-offs. XWIN Research Japan noted a striking weekly pattern: Mondays consistently show the highest liquidation volumes, followed by Sundays and Fridays.

In contrast, Saturdays record the lowest, likely due to reduced market activity. This cycle, often referred to as the “Monday Trap,” suggests that traders carrying leveraged positions from the weekend are particularly vulnerable once institutional and retail flows re-enter early in the week.

“Carrying weekend optimism into Monday’s higher-volume sessions is risky,” the analyst observed, emphasizing that short-term leverage magnifies losses in predictable ways.

For long-term investors, this cycle is less about price direction and more about understanding the risks of excessive leverage in a highly liquid market.

Technical Levels and Broader Market Outlook

From a technical standpoint, Ethereum’s price correction is being closely monitored. A market analyst known as Crypto Patel recently posted on X that ETH has retraced from $4,957 to $4,400, noting $3,900–$4,000 as a strong support zone.

According to Patel, holding this level could open a path toward higher price ranges of $6,000–$8,000. However, if support breaks, downside levels of $3,500 or even $3,200 remain possible.

$ETH Price Analysis

#Ethereum hit ATH of $4957 2 days ago, now retracing to $4400. Strong support at $3900-$4000. Holding this zone opens upside to $6000-$8000. Breakdown of $3900 could lead to $3500 and $3200 levels. pic.twitter.com/WJTdHEImqH

— Crypto Patel (@CryptoPatel) August 26, 2025

The interaction between leveraged liquidations and key technical support levels may define Ethereum’s trajectory in the coming months. Historical data show that large outflows from exchanges often precede sustained rallies, while inflows typically signal selling pressure.

Recent exchange netflow data for ETH has leaned toward outflows, suggesting that investors are withdrawing coins into self-custody, a behavior often associated with long-term confidence rather than immediate selling.

At the same time, institutional demand for Ethereum continues to strengthen, bolstered by ongoing discussions about staking integration within regulated financial products such as ETFs.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView