GBP/USD jumps as China treasury rumors hit USD, UK politics cap gains
- GBP/USD rallies after Bloomberg reports China cutting exposure to US Treasuries.
- Dollar slides sharply as markets reassess US asset demand ahead of delayed NFP and CPI.
- Sterling gains capped by UK political turmoil around Starmer and persistent fiscal uncertainty.
The Pound Sterling post solid gains versus the North American Dollar as rumors emerged that China is asking to reduce exposure to US Treasuries which weighed on the Greenback. Nevertheless, the pair remains capped by political turmoil in the UK. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3659, up 0.41%.
Sterling advances toward 1.3660 as reports of reduced Chinese Treasury exposure sink the Dollar, despite UK political headwinds
Risk appetite is mixed as investors wait for the release of crucial economic data in the US. Last week’s short US government shutdown pushed the release of Nonfarm Payrolls and inflation figures, for February 11 and 13, respectively.
Bloomberg revealed that Chinese authorities advised institutions to limit purchases and reduced their overall exposure to US Treasuries amid fears of volatility in the fixed income markets. This increased the Dollar’s selloff as depicted by the US Dolar Index (DXY).
The DXY which measures the performance value of the American currency against other six is down 0.77%, tumbling below the 97.00 figure for the first time, since January 30.
Political turmoil in the UK witnessed the resignation of PM Keir Starmer Chief of Staff on Sunday, after he advised the PM to choose Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the US, despite his links to Jeffrey Epstein.
Tensions within the Labor party are increasing, which fueled speculation of an ousting of PM Starmer. The UK would have elections in Manchester this month and local elections in May.
Fears that an election of a new leader could shift policies to the left and increase spending could trigger a jump in UK Gilts, amid a period of higher inflation, but not so great economic growth.
In the meantime, both the Fed and the Bank of England are expected to resume their easing cycle during the year. However, a strong NFP report on Wednesday could deter the US central bank from easing faster than the BoE. Last week, the BoE held rates on a 5-4 vote split, closer than expected with Governor Bailey, saying that the disinflation process would continue opening the door for further rate cuts.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The GBP/USD is poised to test 1.3700 amid fears of China’s headlines, prompting investors to ditch the US Dollar. Momentum is turning bullish as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
If the pair clears 1.3700, further upside is seen with the next resistance at 1.3733 the February 4 high. Failure in reclaiming the latter, clears the path for reaching another lower low past the February 6 swing low of 1.3505, opening the door to challenge the 200-day SMA at 1.3427.
Pound Sterling Price This Month
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this month. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.42% | 0.89% | 1.70% | 0.63% | -0.59% | 0.42% | 0.10% | |
| EUR | -0.42% | 0.47% | 1.26% | 0.19% | -1.00% | -0.00% | -0.32% | |
| GBP | -0.89% | -0.47% | 0.77% | -0.26% | -1.45% | -0.47% | -0.78% | |
| JPY | -1.70% | -1.26% | -0.77% | -1.05% | -2.25% | -1.28% | -1.59% | |
| CAD | -0.63% | -0.19% | 0.26% | 1.05% | -1.21% | -0.22% | -0.53% | |
| AUD | 0.59% | 1.00% | 1.45% | 2.25% | 1.21% | 1.00% | 0.68% | |
| NZD | -0.42% | 0.00% | 0.47% | 1.28% | 0.22% | -1.00% | -0.31% | |
| CHF | -0.10% | 0.32% | 0.78% | 1.59% | 0.53% | -0.68% | 0.31% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
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