EUR quiet around 1.17 – Scotiabank

The Euro (EUR) is quietly consolidating its recent recovery and trading in a tight range around 1.17, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.

Focus on PMI’s and Lagarde later this week

"Markets appear to be ignoring the release of softer than expected euro area trade figures for June, and Wednesday’s final CPI release is unlikely to be market moving. This week’s highlight will be the preliminary PMI’s set for release on Thursday."

"ECB President Lagarde is also scheduled to speak on Wednesday in Geneva, and Saturday at the KC Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium. Recent comments from ECB policymakers have been broadly neutral, and the short-term rates market has been slowly fading its pricing of cuts. We remain medium-term EUR bulls on the basis of our outlook for relative central bank policy."

"The EUR is extending its recent consolidation above its 50 day MA (1.1637). The lack of directional movement is notable, the RSI’s current reading ~50 offers little in terms of momentum. The multi-month bull trend is intact, and we await a break of the upper-1.17 resistance area. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.1650 and 1.1750."