Forecasting the upcoming week: Iran war keeps Oil in focus as markets reassess Fed outlook
The US Dollar (USD) is ending the week on a firmer stance as the US/Israeli war against Iran closes in on two weeks. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has spiked Oil prices, boosting inflation risks and prompting investors to hide in safe-haven currencies like the Greenback. The escalating conflict in the Middle East continues to dominate market sentiment after Iran targeted oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz this week, disrupting supply in one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) crossed the 100.00 mark and is now trading near 100.30 after four days of gains. On another note, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left its policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in January and appears to be in a wait-and-see stance ahead of the next interest rate decision on Wednesday.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.72% | 0.80% | 0.16% | 0.65% | 1.12% | 1.12% | 0.61% | |
| EUR | -0.72% | 0.07% | -0.55% | -0.07% | 0.39% | 0.40% | -0.11% | |
| GBP | -0.80% | -0.07% | -0.61% | -0.14% | 0.32% | 0.32% | -0.18% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | 0.55% | 0.61% | 0.49% | 0.93% | 0.92% | 0.43% | |
| CAD | -0.65% | 0.07% | 0.14% | -0.49% | 0.45% | 0.44% | -0.04% | |
| AUD | -1.12% | -0.39% | -0.32% | -0.93% | -0.45% | 0.00% | -0.49% | |
| NZD | -1.12% | -0.40% | -0.32% | -0.92% | -0.44% | -0.01% | -0.50% | |
| CHF | -0.61% | 0.11% | 0.18% | -0.43% | 0.04% | 0.49% | 0.50% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD is trading near the 1.1430 price region, slipping to levels last seen in August 2025. Additionally, the ongoing surge in Oil prices poses a challenge for the Eurozone economy, which remains heavily dependent on imported fuel.
GBP/USD is trading close to the 1.3240 price region, lowering itself to levels last reached in December of 2025 even after a disappointing US employment report, as global energy developments remain an important factor for the UK.
USD/JPY is trading near the 159.60 with little gains throughout the day as periods of heightened global uncertainty tend to benefit the Japanese Yen (JPY). Should the conflict escalate or threaten global energy supplies, the pair could succumb to the pressure and drop from its near two-year high.
AUD/USD is trading at 0.7000, slipping from the 0.7100 level after rising geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding energy could weigh on risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian Dollar.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading at $97 per barrel after government reserve releases failed to keep hold down prices. WTI reached $119 per barrel on Monday, a level it hadn’t seen since 2022.
Gold is trading at $5,044, little changed throughout the day.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
Tuesday, March 17
- ECB’s Nagel speech
- Wednesday, March 18
- BoC Press Conference
- FOMC Press Conference
Thursday, March 19
- BoJ Press Conference
- SNB Press Conference
- ECB Monetary Policy Statement
- ECB Press Conference
Friday, March 20
- ECB’s Nagel speech
- Saturday, March 21
- ECB’s Cipollone speech
- Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell speech
Central banks' meetings and upcoming data releases to shape
Monday, March 16
- CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb)
- CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb)
- CAD BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (Feb)
- CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
- USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Mar)
- USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb)
Tuesday, March 17
- AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
- EUR Consumer Price Index ((YoY) (Feb)
- GER ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (Mar)
- EUR ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (Mar)
- USD ADP Employment Change 4-week average
- USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb)
- JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Feb)
Wednesday, March 18
- EUR Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) (Feb)
- EUR Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Feb)
- EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) (Feb)
- USD Producer Price Index (Feb)
- CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision
- US Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan)
- US Fed Interest Rate Decision
- US FOMC Economic Projections
- NZD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q4)
- NZD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4)
Thursday, March 19
- AUD Employment Change s.a. (Feb)
- JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision
- UK Employment Change (3M) (Jan)
- UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Jan)
- UK BoE Interest Rate Decision
- CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision
- CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
- EUR ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate
- EUR ECB Rate On Deposit Facility
- USD Initial Jobless Claims
- USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Mar)
- USD New Home Sales Change (MoM) (Jan)
- NZD Westpac Consumer Survey (Q1)
- NZD Trade Balance NZD (YoY) (Feb)
Friday, March 20
- CNY PBoC Interest Rate Decision
- EUR Producer Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
- EUR Producer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
- CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
- USD Fed Monetary Policy Report
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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