Indian Rupee steadies amid lower Oil prices
- Indian Rupee gained support from lower crude prices amid reports that the IEA may release record oil reserves.
- IEA’s proposed drawdown would surpass the 182 million barrels released after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
- The US Dollar could regain ground on rising safe-haven demand amid growing uncertainty over the Middle East conflict.
USD/INR remains flat after paring daily losses on Wednesday as the Indian Rupee (INR) received support from lower oil prices after reports that the International Energy Agency (IEA) may release record oil reserves to stabilize markets. Traders may expect an intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cap the downside of the rupee.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price gave up gains from the previous session, trading around $82.30 per barrel during the Asian hours on Wednesday. However, the downside in oil prices may remain limited due to rising uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict and shipping disruptions through the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
The IEA’s proposed drawdown would exceed the 182 million barrels released in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It is worth noting that India relies heavily on oil imports to meet its energy needs and remains highly sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices.
The US Dollar (USD) could regain ground on increased safe-haven demand amid rising uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict. US President Donald Trump said late Monday that the Middle East conflict could end soon. However, US officials indicated on Tuesday that military operations were intensifying in Iran, with limited prospects for diplomatic negotiations, Reuters reported.
Traders await key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due later in the day. Focus will then shift toward Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data. These figures may offer fresh signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR remains above nine-day EMA near 92.00
USD/INR trades around 92.30 at the time of writing, slightly below the previous close. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a persistent bullish bias as the pair remains within the ascending channel pattern.
The USD/INR pair holds a clear bullish near-term bias as price consolidates near recent highs above the rising 50-day Exponential Moving Average, while the nine-day EMA tracks just below spot and underpins the latest upswing. Momentum remains positive with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering in the mid-60s, staying below overbought territory after failing to break higher, which signals persistent but moderated buying pressure rather than exhaustion at current levels.
Immediate resistance is seen at the ascending channel’s upper boundary near the all-time high of 92.81. On the downside, initial support appears at the nine-day EMA at 92.06, followed by the channel’s lower boundary near 91.30.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | INR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.15% | -0.23% | 0.11% | -0.14% | -0.74% | -0.21% | -0.03% | |
| EUR | 0.15% | -0.07% | 0.26% | 0.02% | -0.58% | -0.05% | 0.14% | |
| GBP | 0.23% | 0.07% | 0.34% | 0.11% | -0.52% | 0.01% | 0.20% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | -0.26% | -0.34% | -0.26% | -0.85% | -0.34% | -0.14% | |
| CAD | 0.14% | -0.02% | -0.11% | 0.26% | -0.60% | -0.07% | 0.11% | |
| AUD | 0.74% | 0.58% | 0.52% | 0.85% | 0.60% | 0.53% | 0.73% | |
| NZD | 0.21% | 0.05% | -0.01% | 0.34% | 0.07% | -0.53% | 0.21% | |
| INR | 0.03% | -0.14% | -0.20% | 0.14% | -0.11% | -0.73% | -0.21% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
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