US Dollar Index rises above 99.00 as Middle East tensions drive inflation fears
- US Dollar strengthens as rising Middle East energy prices fuel inflation fears, reducing bets on near-term policy easing.
- President Trump warned escalation could bring equally hardline Iranian leadership, highlighting uncertainty over the conflict’s outcome.
- Israel reportedly struck a building where Iranian clerics were meeting to select a new Supreme Leader.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, extends gains for the third consecutive day, trading around 99.20 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Attention now turns to the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), due later in the day.
The Greenback advances on fading expectations of imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note holds around 4.06% at the time of writing after rising for two consecutive sessions amid elevated inflation fears.
Higher energy prices due to escalating tensions in the Middle East have added to inflation concerns, prompting markets to scale back bets on near-term policy easing. Investors largely expect the US central bank to keep interest rates unchanged until summer, despite calls from US President Donald Trump for lower borrowing costs.
The US Dollar also receives support from safe-haven demand due to the ongoing Middle East war. US President Donald Trump warned that the escalation could pave the way for an equally hardline leadership in Iran, underscoring uncertainty surrounding the conflict’s outcome.
Israel reportedly hit a building where Iranian clerics were meeting to choose a new Supreme Leader. Israeli forces also launched a new ground operation in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah, alongside increased airstrikes.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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