BoJ’s Himino says could raise rates toward neutral if underlying inflation accelerates to target
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Himino said on Monday that even if headline inflation falls below 2%, the central bank could raise interest rates toward neutral if it judge underlying inflation is accelerating to our price target.
Key quotes
Expect Japan consumer inflation to stay below 2% for some period of time.
Good chance underlying inflation will accelerate moderately yet will keep an eye on risk expected slowdown in headline inflation could affect underlying inflation.
Even if headline inflation falls below 2%, we could raise interest rates toward neutral if we judge underlying inflation is accelerating to our price target.
Accommodative monetary conditions may be among factors increasing domestic property and stock prices so must watch developments carefully.
At present, we do not see asset price moves as showing risks that warrant monetary policy response.
Market reaction
At the time of press, the USD/JPY pair was up 0.46% on the day at 157.00.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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