Forex Today: RBA strikes hawkish tone while US shutdown delays jobs data
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, February 4:
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, aligning with market expectations. The RBA's hawkish tone indicates that inflation pressures are likely to persist, suggesting further policy tightening may be on the horizon. The market is currently pricing in another rate hike by the end of the year
Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said Tehran will resume nuclear negotiations with the US, which could help ease regional tensions and support the US Dollar (USD).
On the other side of the pond, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Monday that the January United States (US) jobs report, which is scheduled for release on Friday, will be delayed due to the ongoing partial government shutdown. As a result, investors will need to rely on private-sector indicators, such as the ADP Employment Change report, which is scheduled for release on Wednesday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near the 97.40 level, with little movement, as an ongoing partial US government shutdown keeps the US Dollar in line.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.14% | -0.08% | 0.08% | -0.11% | -0.65% | -0.54% | -0.50% | |
| EUR | 0.14% | 0.06% | 0.20% | 0.03% | -0.51% | -0.40% | -0.36% | |
| GBP | 0.08% | -0.06% | 0.17% | -0.03% | -0.57% | -0.46% | -0.42% | |
| JPY | -0.08% | -0.20% | -0.17% | -0.17% | -0.71% | -0.57% | -0.56% | |
| CAD | 0.11% | -0.03% | 0.03% | 0.17% | -0.54% | -0.42% | -0.39% | |
| AUD | 0.65% | 0.51% | 0.57% | 0.71% | 0.54% | 0.11% | 0.16% | |
| NZD | 0.54% | 0.40% | 0.46% | 0.57% | 0.42% | -0.11% | 0.04% | |
| CHF | 0.50% | 0.36% | 0.42% | 0.56% | 0.39% | -0.16% | -0.04% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD is trading near the 1.1820 price zone ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision on Thursday.
GBP/USD is trading near 1.3690, moving upward slowly as a depreciating USD gives the Great British Pound (GBP) the upper hand.
USD/CAD is trading near the 1.3650 level, losing almost all its intraday gains. Last week, the Bank of Canada (BoC) left the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% at its January policy meeting.
AUD/USD is trading at the 0.7000 price zone after the RBA rate hike.
USD/JPY is trading near a weekly high close to the 155.80 price region.
Gold is trading near the $4,910 price zone, recovering almost all of Monday’s losses.
What’s next in the docket:
Wednesday, February 4:
- Eurozone January Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP).
- US January ADP Employment Change.
- US January ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).
- Australian December Trade Balance.
Thursday, February 5:
- Eurozone December Retail Sales.
- Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision.
- European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision.
Friday, February 6 :
- Canada January Net Change in Employment.
- US February Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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