USD steady near 200-DMA ahead of key US jobs data – BBH

US Dollar (ISD) is steady near yesterday’s high, with the dollar index (DXY) trading just 0.3% below its 200-DMA, BBH FX analysts report.

Weakening labor demand could support 2026 rate cuts

"Today’s December ADP employment and November JOLTS report are policy relevant. Consensus expects ADP private payrolls at +50k vs. -32k in November. Still, that’s unlikely to ease concerns about weakening labor demand. An average of -13k jobs was lost in September, October, and November."

"Meanwhile, further declines in the JOLTS hiring and quit rates would add to signs of worsening labor demand. If so, it would validate the 50bps of cuts priced into Fed funds futures over 2026 and weigh on USD."

"US December ISM services index is expected to remain indicative of solid services sector activity. The headline index is projected at 52.2 vs. 52.6 in November. However, a further decline in the prices paid sub-index would support the case for additional Fed funds rate cuts."