NZD/USD surges toward 0.6000 amid resilient Retail Sales figures and USD weakness
- New Zealand Dollar surges as Retail Sales and US Dollar weakness drive gains.
- Trump’s 50% tariff threat on EU imports adds to diminishing growth prospects for the US economy, fueling USD outflows.
- NZD/USD rises toward 0.6000 with markets looking ahead to Fed Powell’s speech scheduled for Sunday.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, buoyed by positive Retail Sales data and a weaker Greenback.
At the time of writing, NZD/USD is heading toward 0.6000, with intraday gains of 1.50% resulting in a clear break of the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) that provides support at 0.5928.
Thursday’s release of New Zealand's first quarter Retail Sales, rising by 0.8% in Q1, came above analyst estimates of a 0.1% increase. The upside surprise reflected stable consumer spending growth, providing a positive shift in NZD sentiment. Additionally, the New Zealand Treasury released its updated budget forecasts that showed expectations for the deficit for the 2025/2026 fiscal year to rise by 1.3%, below prior forecasts of 1.9%.
For the United States, US President Donald Trump's proposal for a 50% tariff charge on imports of goods from the European Union (EU) resulted in an increase in USD outflows, fueling US Dollar weakness.
As speakers of the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained a hawkish stance, raising expectations that the Fed will maintain interest rates at the current 4.25%-4.50% range at the upcoming June and July meetings, the economic outlook for the US remains uncertain. While the Fed is expected to cut rates in September, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will provide his remarks on Sunday, providing potential insight into rate expectations amid the current economic backdrop.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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