USD/CHF holds losses below 0.7900 ahead of ZEW Swiss Survey Expectations
- USD/CHF may rise as traders expect SNB intervention to weaken the Swiss Franc.
- The US Dollar may advance on safe-haven demand amid reports the US may extend Iran’s blockade.
- The Fed is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday.
USD/CHF inches lower after registering nearly 0.5% gains in the previous day, trading around 0.7890 during the early European hours on Wednesday. The pair declines as the Swiss Franc (CHF) receives support ahead of the release of ZEW Survey – Expectations for April.
However, the upside for the Swiss Franc (CHF) may be limited as traders anticipate intervention by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to weaken the currency. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel reiterated at the April meeting that the central bank stands ready to intervene in FX markets by purchasing foreign currencies to curb CHF strength and maintain price stability.
Additionally, the US Dollar (USD) gains ground against its major peers on safe-haven demand after reports that the United States (US) may extend its blockade on Iran, prolonging supply disruptions across the Middle East.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that US officials said President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran. The report noted that Trump opted to continue pressuring Iran’s economy and oil exports by restricting shipping to and from its ports. Sources added that he considers alternative options, such as resuming bombing or stepping away from the conflict, riskier than maintaining the blockade.
The Greenback also remains stronger as traders expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at Wednesday’s April meeting, maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% for a third straight hold.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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