NZD/USD weakens to near 0.5850 as markets brace for Fed rate decision
- NZD/USD softens to near 0.5865 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- Fed is likely to leave the rates unchanged on Wednesday.
- Trump said Iran wants Hormuz open amid efforts to end the conflict.
The NZD/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 0.5865 during the early European session on Wednesday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday, with no change in rate expected. Jerome Powell’s press conference will be closely watched.
The US central bank is widely expected to maintain interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% at its April policy meeting later on Wednesday. This would mark the third consecutive hold. This policy meeting is likely Chair Jerome Powell's final session before a Fed Chair transition to nominee Kevin Warsh.
Powell’s press conference after the rate decision might offer some hints about how the Fed may react to the risks ahead. If the US central bank maintains a hawkish tone regarding persistent inflation, this could provide some support to the Greenback and act as a headwind for the pair in the near term.
US President Donald Trump said Iran asked the US to lift a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz while the two sides negotiate an end to the two-month war. Mediators in Pakistan expect Iran to submit a revised proposal to end the war in the next few days, CNN reported on Tuesday, citing sources close to the mediation process. Any signs of a possible peace deal or easing tensions between the US and Iran could improve risk sentiment. This, in turn, might help limit the Kiwi’s losses.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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