NZD/USD firms around 0.5900 amid risk-on mood
- NZD/USD rises as US Dollar weakens on reduced safe-haven demand after Trump extends the Iran ceasefire.
- President Trump said that the US extended the Iran ceasefire at Pakistan’s request while awaiting a unified proposal.
- Moody’s cut New Zealand’s outlook to negative from stable amid global economic and political uncertainty.
NZD/USD remains stronger for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 0.5910 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid faded safe-haven demand following US President Donald Trump’s extension of a ceasefire with Iran.
US President Donald Trump said Tuesday the US is extending the ceasefire with Iran at Pakistan’s request while awaiting a unified proposal from Tehran, easing fears of renewed conflict that had driven energy prices sharply higher.
However, tensions remain elevated as Iran maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz, restricting passage and targeting vessels. Iranian parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that reopening the strait would be “impossible” while the US and Israel continue what he called “flagrant” ceasefire violations, including the US naval blockade.
In New Zealand, the Labour Party pledged support for the India–New Zealand free trade deal, providing National and ACT with enough votes to pass it through Parliament. Meanwhile, Moody’s downgraded New Zealand’s outlook from stable to negative due to global economic and political uncertainty, following Fitch Ratings’ similar downgrade in March.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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