Forex Today: Markets turn cautious, all eyes on US NFP data
Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 4:
The US Dollar (USD) holds positive ground around 100.00 heading into the European trading session. Trading volumes are likely to be thin due to the Good Friday holiday.
Markets might turn cautious ahead of the key US employment report for March. Traders expected the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to rise by 60,000 following the disappointing 92,000 decrease seen in February. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4% during the same period.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.00% | -0.11% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.12% | 0.10% | -0.05% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | -0.06% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.10% | -0.04% | |
| GBP | 0.11% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.17% | 0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.11% | -0.01% | -0.03% | 0.07% | -0.08% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.06% | 0.01% | -0.01% | 0.09% | -0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.12% | 0.00% | -0.08% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.09% | -0.06% | |
| NZD | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.17% | -0.07% | -0.09% | -0.09% | -0.15% | |
| CHF | 0.05% | 0.04% | -0.02% | 0.08% | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.15% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
US President Donald Trump touted the destruction of a bridge in Tehran, Iran. He warned that there was “much more to follow” and urged Tehran to “make a deal before it is too late.” Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said Washington’s recent strikes on civilian infrastructure will not force the country to back down, adding that such actions “convey the defeat and moral collapse of an enemy in disarray.”
Trump signed an executive order that could slap up to 100% tariffs on certain imported medicines from companies that don't reach deals with his administration in the coming months. A White House statement said that the new levy applies to patented drugs made in countries that lack tariff deals with the US by companies that don’t have most-favored-nation-pricing agreements with the administration.
The latest data published by RatingDog showed on Friday that China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to 52.1 in March from 56.7 in February. This figure came in weaker than the expectations of 53.7.
AUD/USD gains ground near 0.6910 in the early European session on Friday. The Australian Dollar remains supported by expectations of further interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
EUR/USD flat lines near 1.1535 in the European morning on Friday. Traders are now pricing in nearly an 81.0% probability of a 25 basis point (bps) rate hike at the upcoming April 30 meeting, according to the ECB Watch Tool.
GBP/USD trades in positive territory around 1.3230 in Friday’s early European session after falling 0.65% on Thursday to close near 1.3220.
USD/JPY posts modest gains near 159.65. The pair faces volatility driven by intervention threats from Japanese authorities. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that the government is ready to take "decisive action" to counter volatile speculative moves.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
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