NZD/USD remains below 0.5950 due to increased risk aversion
- NZD/USD remains subdued as risk aversion persists due to the Middle East conflict.
- Rising oil prices have fueled domestic inflation concerns, supporting growing RBNZ rate hike bets for 2026.
- President Trump said the Middle East conflict could end soon, though US officials reported intensifying military operations in Iran.
NZD/USD remains in the negative territory after giving up daily gains, trading around 0.5930 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. However, the pair advanced as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthened amid rising Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate hike bets in 2026. This could be attributed to domestic inflation concerns, driven by the recent surge in oil prices.
Crude oil prices remain volatile due to growing uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict and shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz. The Wall Street Journal reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA) is considering its largest-ever oil reserve release to stabilize markets, although shipping disruptions through the crucial Strait of Hormuz persist.
Market analysts expect inflation in New Zealand to remain more persistent than the central bank anticipates. This has reinforced expectations of a Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest-rate hike, with markets now pricing in rate hikes in 2026. The outlook marks a shift from last month, when the RBNZ signaled that the official cash rate would likely stay around 2.25% throughout the year.
The US Dollar (USD) edges lower after posting modest gains in the previous session. The Greenback could regain ground on increased safe-haven demand amid rising uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict.
US President Donald Trump said late Monday that the Middle East conflict could end soon. However, US officials indicated on Tuesday that military operations were intensifying in Iran, with limited prospects for diplomatic negotiations, Reuters reported.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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