USD/JPY: Intervention risk on the rise – OCBC

USD/JPY continued to trade near elevated levels. Fiscal concerns, a delay in BOJ policy normalization and USD strength are some of the factors that continued to underpin Japanese Yen (JPY) weakness. PM Takaichi has approved stimulus of JPY17.7tn, much higher than the JPY13.9tn last year. Pair was last seen at 157.40 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Daily momentum turns mild bullish

"PM Takaichi had signalled her intent to ramp up the active use of fiscal policy to power economic growth. By dropping the annual budget-balancing goal and moving towards multi-year budget frameworks, with a preference for net debt-toGDP targets rather than gross debt, the government is signalling greater fiscal flexibility. This approach potentially allows for increased bond issuance to finance expansive fiscal spending."

"Leaning against the wind activity is not likely to reverse the JPY’s broader depreciation trend though it may moderate the pace of decline. A combination of fiscal policy shifts, monetary policy delays, and geopolitical uncertainties are some shifts that can underpin JPY weakness with potential intervention only acting as a limited counterbalance."

"Daily momentum turned mild bullish while RSI shows tentative signs of turnaround from overbought conditions. Resistance at 158, 158.87 (previous high in 2025) and 160 levels. Support at 154.40 (21 DMA, 76.4% fibo), 151.60 (61.8% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low, 50 DMA)."