One Analyst Said SpaceX Has "Significant Moats" and Just Put a Buy Rating on the Stock. Is He Right?

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock recently received yet another buy rating from an analyst, pushing the total number of analysts who recommend owning SpaceX stock to 30.

Barclays analyst Anthony Valentini initiated coverage of SpaceX last week and assigned a buy rating to the rocket stock, with a $254 price target -- a 56% upside from its current price.

Valentini wrote in an investor note that SpaceX's launch capacity is unrivaled. This advantage "creates significant moats in communications with Starlink and, in the future, AI with orbital data centers."

But is he right?

I think it's true that SpaceX has a significant moat with Starlink and potentially in orbital data centers. But I disagree that SpaceX stock is a buy right now. Here's why.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

SpaceX's technological leads are undeniable

You don't have to be a fan of SpaceX to admit the company is doing a lot of things right.

For one, the company's Starship rocket is the largest rocket ever launched and just completed its 14th test flight. Once it enters a regular launch schedule (sometime next year), it could help reduce the cost of launching payloads to space by 90%, per SpaceX's estimates.

What's more, SpaceX's other rockets have made dozens of successful flights into space, deploying payloads for customers and ferrying NASA astronauts.

SpaceX had 161 successful launches in 2025, compared to 18 for Rocket Lab, 7 for Arianespace, and just 6 for ULA. SpaceX now accounts for more than 80% of all U.S. commercial launches and more than 50% of all global launches -- I'd say that's a pretty good moat.

And then there's the company's Starlink internet service. Starlink currently has 12 million subscribers globally, with about 3 million in the U.S. Analysts estimate it will continue growing over the next few years and could reach 15 million U.S. subscribers by 2030.

Less than four years ago, Starlink had just 1 million subscribers.

That's phenomenal growth, and could accelerate even more soon. SpaceX said last week that the company was purchasing low-band spectrum that could be used to sell wireless mobile services to customers.

SpaceX is also serious about launching AI data centers into space, and other companies are too. SpaceX launched some of Alphabet's AI processors into space recently as part of the first in-orbit test for Alphabet's Project Suncatcher.

Given the company's ability to launch advanced rockets and technology into space, it's certainly not out of the question that SpaceX could eventually lead the orbital data center market.

Why I don't think SpaceX stock is a buy

Despite its opportunities, there are two reasons SpaceX stock isn't worth buying right now.

The first is that the company's capital expenditures are accelerating far too quickly. The company spent $28.5 billion in capex in the first half of 2026, a 309% jump over the same period in 2025.

And that wasn't because rockets are expensive (even though they are). More than 80% of that spending went toward SpaceX's artificial intelligence investments. That's a problem because, despite most of the capex going toward AI, the segment returned $3.4 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026 -- far less than its high costs.

In addition to its high capex spending, SpaceX is very expensive right now. SpaceX shares have a price-to-sales ratio of 68, which is quite a premium over the tech sector average P/S ratio of less than 8.

Will SpaceX continue to lead the rocket launch market and expand further into wireless communications? Probably. And could it successfully launch orbital data centers and create a niche there? It's likely.

But buying the stock now means you're betting on all that to continue going swimmingly for SpaceX, at a time when the market is flying high on AI stocks, and without a dime of net profitability from the company.

Chris Neiger has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool recommends Barclays Plc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.