Nokia Stock Forecast: Tumbles 13% Below $10 Mark Again, Is the Rebound Rally Over?

TradingKey - Nokia Plummets Over 13%, Dropping Below $10 Again: Has the Current Rally Ended?

On September 15 Eastern Time, Nokia (NOK)'s rebound hit a wall as its stock price plunged 13.3% on the New York Stock Exchange, falling below the $10 mark again to close at $9.65. During overnight trading, Nokia's stock price rebounded slightly, but by less than 1%, remaining suppressed below $10.

Nokia's sharp stock price drop this time was not driven by intrinsic factors, but largely by external reasons, mainly including: 1. Industry leaders collectively expressing intent to slow AI development, with industry giants such as Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, and xAI CEO Elon Musk agreeing to slow model development; 2. Tightening regulatory signals: The U.S. Senate pushing for AI safety legislation; 3. Pressure on macroeconomic liquidity: Rate hike expectations heating up ahead of the FOMC policy meeting.

Under the weight of these three major headwinds, U.S. tech stocks, especially the AI hardware and semiconductor sectors, suffered a sharp single-day selloff yesterday. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) plunged nearly 6%, while core AI stocks such as Nvidia (NVDA), Micron (MU), AMD (AMD), and Broadcom (AVGO) generally fell 3% to 5%, dragging Nokia's stock price lower.

In late July, Nokia's stock price plummeted from its peak to a low of $8.4, resulting in a maximum drawdown of over 50%. Subsequently, Nokia's stock price staged an oversold rebound, climbing toward $11 multiple times without breaking through, while also holding above the defensive support line at $9.5. Over the past month, Nokia's stock price has fluctuated within the $9.5–$11 range.

Now, industry and regulatory headwinds have pushed Nokia's stock price down once again toward technical support at $9. Over the next two days, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. If it continues to hold rates steady or even raises rates, Nokia's stock price will likely continue downward and break below this level, potentially testing the July low of $8.4 again or even setting a new low in the short term, which would signal the end of this rally. Of course, if the Fed unexpectedly cuts rates, a surge in liquidity would benefit risk assets, and Nokia's stock price could maintain its upward momentum and strengthen further.

Nokia stock price chart, Source: TradingView