Forget Nvidia's Stock Price. This Is the Number That Actually Matters.

After seeing the shares jump 171% in 2024 and another 39% in 2025, it's understandable that Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) investors would be a little disappointed with how the stock has performed so far this year. Nvidia is showing gains of only 6% on the year, marking the stock's worst performance so far since 2022.

I've held Nvidia for several years now, so I watch the stock closely. And while I wish that we were seeing double-digit gains again this year, I'm really not that focused on the stock price. Instead, there's another number that I'm keeping in mind when I consider my position in Nvidia stock.

Image source: Nvidia.

The $700 billion commitment

The biggest factor that's going to influence Nvidia stock comes from other tech companies -- fellow members of the "Magnificent Seven," including Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta Platforms. Those companies have announced commitments to spend up to $700 billion in capital expenditures (capex) this year alone, with much of that money going toward infrastructure to build data centers and support the growth of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms.

Not all of that will go to Nvidia, of course. Capex spending goes to many areas, including land, structures, cooling systems, and networking equipment. But one of the biggest expenses is for hardware, including the graphics processing units (GPUs) that Nvidia is so well-known for.

Nvidia's market capitalization vaulted to the largest in the stock market over the last two years as its GPUs took center stage in the growth of AI. Nvidia's Hopper and Blackwell chips -- the latter of which was just made available last year -- are considered the gold standard for designing, training, and operating high-level AI programs.

In addition, Nvidia is rolling out its next-generation Rubin chips this year, which are even more powerful and more efficient than the Blackwell chips. The constant innovation of Nvidia chips helps ensure that the company remains at the cutting edge of hardware and chip development.

Nvidia by the numbers

The vast majority of Nvidia's revenue comes from its data center chip sales. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 (ending Jan. 25), Nvidia reported $68.1 billion in revenue, up 73% from a year ago. Of that, $62.3 billion was the result of data center sales -- an increase of 75% from the previous year.

"Our customers are racing to invest in AI compute -- the factories powering the AI industrial revolution and their future growth," CEO Jensen Huang said.

Despite that rapid growth, Nvidia stock is surprisingly affordable. The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.9 is far below the stock's three-year P/E mean of 79, indicating that the market continues to underestimate Nvidia's future growth.

NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts. PE Ratio = price-to-earnings ratio.

And that growth could be dynamic. Huang, speaking at the Nvidia GTC 2026 event, forecast that Nvidia could see $1 trillion in AI revenue by the 2027 calendar year. Considering Nvidia received just $215.9 billion in revenue for its 2025 calendar year, such a projection indicates that Nvidia is in the middle of a massive growth spree.

So, while it's always prudent to keep an eye on the Nvidia stock price, it's not the biggest number on my mind right now. Instead, I'll continue to follow the capex commitments of its major customers, such as Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft, as I evaluate my position in Nvidia stock.

Patrick Sanders has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.