Walmart Stock Is Transforming Into a Growth Stock. Is It Time to Buy?
Key Points
Sam's Club is increasing its standard membership fee, suggesting the retailer still commands real pricing power.
Walmart's global advertising and membership fee revenues are growing rapidly, helping operating income outpace total sales.
The stock's high valuation still raises eyebrows.
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When a retailer operates at Walmart's (NASDAQ: WMT) scale, it takes a lot to move the financial needle meaningfully. But the company's recent decision to raise membership prices at its Sam's Club warehouse chain serves as a useful reminder of how its underlying business model is evolving so that it can keep raising the bar despite its massive size.
Beginning May 1, the cost of a standard Sam's Club membership will increase from $50 to $60 annually, while the premium Plus tier will rise from $110 to $120. While a $10 increase might not seem important to the bull case for Walmart stock, it points to a broader strategic transition for the company: Walmart is increasingly relying on higher-margin, faster-growing revenue streams to enhance its growth story.
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Evolving growth drivers
Sam's Club membership growth fits neatly into Walmart's broader push toward higher-margin revenue streams -- and it fuels its already-strong growth in membership fees. The company's membership fee revenue rose about 15% year over year in the company's fiscal fourth quarter.
Then there's the company's fast-growing advertising segment.
Walmart Connect, the company's advertising platform, enables brands to pay for premium placement across Walmart's digital properties and physical stores. Because digital ads carry materially higher margins than consumer packaged goods, this unit's growth can have an outsize impact on consolidated profitability. In the fiscal fourth quarter, global advertising revenue jumped 37% year over year, while the U.S. Walmart Connect business surged 41%.
Additionally, the company is seeing solid momentum in its e-commerce delivery and third-party marketplace operations. Global e-commerce sales surged 24% year over year in the fourth quarter, helping to lift total revenue by 5.6% to $190.7 billion.
This ongoing evolution in the company's sales mix is arguably the primary reason the long-term investment thesis looks so compelling today.
"This was the third consecutive year that we grew profits at a faster rate than sales growth," noted Walmart CEO Doug McMillon during the company's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call.
Indeed, adjusted operating income jumped 10.5% on a constant-currency basis during the period, easily outpacing the company's 4.9% constant-currency sales growth.
The valuation hurdle
Despite Walmart's clear momentum in pivoting its business toward higher-margin, faster-growing revenue streams, the stock still has a lingering problem: investors seem to have already priced in this momentum.
Walmart stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 46.
For an established big-box retailer, this is a highly demanding multiple. A valuation at this level arguably implies that the market has already factored in the ongoing success of the company's higher-margin initiatives. In other words, investors are paying a premium today for earnings that may not fully materialize for years.
More specifically, to justify this price, Walmart likely needs to execute its digital transition exceptionally well, maintain robust comparable-store sales growth, and continue expanding its operating margin without any meaningful macroeconomic disruptions.
With that said, Walmart's recent evolution is truly exceptional and will likely support strong earnings growth for years to come.
"We have a combination of profit drivers including automation-related inventory and labor productivity, favorable business mix, and continued expense discipline to support continued investment and to drive faster operating income growth," explained Walmart chief financial officer John Rainey in the company's fourth-quarter earnings call.
But a strong business does not inherently translate into a smart stock purchase. At this elevated price point, I believe shares leave very little room for error. I would prefer to stay on the sidelines and wait for a pullback that creates a more attractive entry point, rather than deploying capital at a valuation that already assumes so much success.
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Daniel Sparks and his clients have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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