UK's OBR: Budget delivers third-largest medium-term tax increase since 2010

The UK's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said on Wednesday that around three-quarters of the planned reduction in borrowing over the next five years now comes from tax increases, according to the Autumn Budget.

Key takeaways

"There is still significant uncertainty about the future direction of the US and global trade policy, with threats of higher tariffs on many trading partners."

"In central forecast, the government’s fiscal mandate for the current budget to be in balance in 2029-30 is met by a margin of 22 billion pounds."

"Budget policies increase spending in every year and by £11 billion in 2029-30."

"Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) forecast 138.3 billion Sterling in 2025-26."

"PSNB forecast 112.1 billion Sterling in 2026-27, 98.5 billion Sterling in 2027-28."

"PSNB forecast 86.9 billion Sterling in 2028-29, 67.9 billion Sterling in 2029-30."

"Tax take to reach record 38.3% of GDP by 2030-31."

"As share of GDP, budget delivers third-largest medium-term tax increase since the OBR established in 2010.".

"Current budget surplus margin 21.7 billion Sterling in 2029-30 vs 9.9 billion Sterling in March."

"Economic and fiscal outlook: Budget tax rises raise 26.1 billion Sterling by 2029-30."

"Central government net cash requirement ex network rail 149.2 billion Sterling 2025-26."

"Cut medium-term productivity growth forecast to 1.0% from 1.3%."

"Freezing personal tax thresholds raises 8.0 billion Sterling in 2029-30."

"NICs on salary-sacrifice pensions raises 4.7 billion Sterling in 2029-30."

"Welfare policy reversals and removal of the two-child limit on benefits account for 9 billion Sterling of 11 billion Sterling spending increases."

"Increases to dividend, property, savings tax rates raise 2.1 billion Sterling by 2029-30."

"Mileage-based charge on electric cars raises 1.4 billion Sterling in 2029-30."

"Probability of meeting current budget target 59% vs 54% in March."

"OBR sees 2025 GDP growth at 1.5% vs 1.0% in March."

"OBR sees 2026 GDP growth at 1.4% vs 1.9% in March."

"OBR sees 2027 GDP growth at 1.5%."

"OBR sees 2025 CPI inflation at 3.5% vs 3.3% in March."

"OBR sees 2027 CPI inflation at 2.0%."

Market reaction

After rising toward 1.3200 with the immediate reaction to the details of the Autumn Budget, GBP/USD reversed its direction and was last seen trading marginally lower on the day near 1.3150.