Polygon faces major blow as Polymarket migration odds climb

Polymarket will cease operating its leading prediction market on the Polygon network before 2026 ends, according to traders placing bets on Predict.fun, who have placed the odds that the tandem sticking together past this year at just 26%. Bettors on the same market put the odds of a Polymarket migrating to its own chain at 67%, climbing from 55% earlier this month. 

The curtains are about to drop on the days of Polygon hosting 100% of all of Polymarket’s activity based on recent betting action on the YZi Labs-backed prediction platform Predict.fun. Those odds pour fuel to the fire of earlier Cryptopolitan reports that have pointed out possibilities of Polygon losing its leading source of network activity and revenue generation. 

Polymarket accounted for over $860,000 of the $1.18 million fees that Polygon generated over the last 24 hours. The next closest, Courtyard, logged $181,731 over the same period.

As Cryptopolitan reported, Polygon has also started to build for a future that does not disproportionately rely on Polymarket activity, with plans to raise $100 million to advance its payment business plans. Polymarket has also already teased adopting a “new collateral token” – Polymarket USD. 

Will Polymarket leave Polygon in 2026?

According to Predict.fun bettors, there’s a cumulative 82% chance that Polymarket will migrate from Polygon and name a new primary chain before the end of 2026. The market has already attracted more than $1.7 million in volume since it opened on April 27, with more bettors expected to jump in on the action before it settles at 12 AM, January 1, 2027. 

Only 26% of bettors think Polymarket will still be on the Polygon network by New Year’s Day of 2027. The January 1 date is the final cutoff for the market to settle, after which the Polygon-backing contingent will see their $1 stake pay out $3.67.

According to Predict.fun, Polymarket’s migration in this instance only becomes formal if the platform or its founder Shane Coplan announces the move on their X (formerly Twitter) profiles or in an official press release.

The other condition is that users must have completed “at least one non-test trade from the main Polymarket product” on a new primary blockchain that’s not Polygon.

How much are Polymarket bets paying?

To avoid a repeat of the Kalshi incident when it had to refund traders after its regime change market was technically settled with the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli strikes, Predict.fun proactively defined the terms for what constitutes different blockchain migration scenarios. 

A new Polymarket chain is a “blockchain, rollup, appchain, L2, L3, or similar execution environment “ that is not currently operational or publicly scheduled for future release as of the initiation of this market. 

If the Polymarket migration comes in the form of a multi-chain expansion, then the market resolution will depend on which network Polymarket names as the primary chain. The network with the highest level of activity automatically becomes the primary chain if Polymarket does not officially name one.

If Polymarket goes to an L2, L3, rollup, subchain or appchain that is not currently listed among Predict.fun’s options, the market will settle to the parent chain if its listed. For example, if Polymarket migrates to opBNB (Optimistic Rollup) or zkBNB (Zero-Knowledge Rollup), stakers who placed a $1 bet on BNB Chain will cash out $196 because that’s the parent chain in this case.

And finally, if the parent chain is not listed anyhow, traders who took the “other blockchain” position win, cashing out $69.99 on every dollar bet.

Are prediction markets accurate?

Prediction markets first shot to prominence after Polymarket correctly tipped President Trump to win the 2024 US presidential election after traditional polls and news networks confidently predicted Trump would not return to serve as the 47th president after his first stint as number 45.

Since then, people have turned to these venues to check the temperature on real-world events and test opinions against real stakes, according to Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.

So, until Polymarket makes a formal announcement, prediction markets are the next best tools for gauging the likelihood of where Polymarket will host its platform in 2027.

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