Revolution talks grow as Ukraine war, blackouts pull Putin's approval rating to new lows

A new poll shows that Russians are losing their patience with Vladimir Putin. His approval rating has dropped to its lowest since the Ukraine war started. The economy is also on the brink, while the internet blackouts are adding to the frustration of millions.

Putin’s approval rating is now at 65.6% according to the Russian Public Opinion Research Center. It may not look as bad, but it is down 12.2 this year from its peak 88%. In reality, the true sentiment may have been masked by the country’s strict policy against war criticism, which it considers a criminal offense.

Peace talks have been in vain, and Trump himself is caught up in Iran’s mess. There’s no one currently pushing for a deal.

A Russian government official told The Washington Post that Russia hasn’t even fully captured one region, Donestsk, which it wanted to in 2022. Now people are tired as the war has dragged on longer than WWII.

An economy running on empty

The economy is making things worse. GDP fell 1.8% in January and February combined. Unpaid commercial bills hit a record $109 billion in January, according to Russia’s federal statistics service.

Nearly 440,000 businesses are behind on their taxes. At a business forum in Moscow this month, executives and economists lined up to attack the government in unusually blunt terms. Vladimir Bogalev, who runs a tractor manufacturing company, said those in power had completely lost touch with the real economy and were actively discrediting themselves.

Putin himself went on television on April 15 to publicly demand answers from his ministers, calling the economic numbers worse than even his own government had predicted.

Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov told a separate business conference that the country’s financial reserves are “largely exhausted.” The central bank, which had raised interest rates above 20% to fight inflation, has since cut them five times in a row, bringing the benchmark rate to 14.5%. But economists now warn of the opposite problem, that the economy could overcool into a full recession.

Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov delivered the starkest warning yet, telling parliament that without urgent action, Russia could face a revolution by autumn, comparing the situation to 1917, when the Bolsheviks overthrew the government.

Sweden’s military intelligence chief told the Financial Times that Russia’s defense industry is losing money, corrupted from within, and dependent on state bank loans. “It’s not a sustainable growth model,” he said.

A temporary boost has come from rising oil prices since the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. But Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian ports and refineries forced Moscow to cut oil production by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day in April, eating into those gains.

Crackdown at home reveals ghosts of the Soviet past

Russia hasn’t been doing enough to deal with public frustration. Instead, they are making it worse by imposing harder crackdowns. One of the country’s biggest publishers, Eksmo, was raided for portraying LGBTQ content in young adult fiction.

Police searched the offices of Novaya Gazeta, the last significant independent newspaper. Russia’s Supreme Court labeled Memorial, the country’s oldest human rights group, an extremist organization, a move the United Nations called the criminalization of human rights work.

The FSB Academy, where Putin trained as a KGB officer, was renamed after Felix Dzerzhinsky, the feared founder of the Soviet secret police.

On blackouts, Putin referred to them as measures to deal with counterterrorism operations.

There was no warning for the public since the criminals could use it to their advantage. Russians weren’t convinced with this hollow explanation. “We already lived behind the Iron Curtain once,” said Tatyana, 53, a logistics manager. “Now we have a digital one.” A 19-year-old student named Igor was more direct. “Everyone wants to leave,” he said. “No one wants to tie their future to this country.”

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