Bitcoin Rally Faces First Test At $76K As Sellers Step In: Analysts

Daily profits from Bitcoin sales are climbing fast — and analysts say a key threshold could determine whether the current rally has legs or runs out of steam.

Profit-Taking Still Below Danger Zone

Realized daily profits are hovering around $500 million, according to blockchain data firm CryptoQuant. That number matters because $1 billion has historically marked the point where local price peaks tend to form.

Reports from CryptoQuant indicate that if Bitcoin pushes closer to its realized price of $76,800, that $1 billion ceiling could be breached — and that is when selling pressure tends to build fast enough to stop a rally cold.

Bitcoin touched $76,052 on Coinbase earlier this week, its highest level since early February. The move drew attention across crypto markets, where investors had been watching for signs of a recovery.

Hopes for a sustained climb were partly tied to signals that the conflict involving Iran may be winding down, giving risk assets some breathing room.

Exchange Inflows Hit A Multi-Month High

What happened next raised a flag. As prices climbed, the amount of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges surged. Hourly inflows hit 11,000 BTC — the highest recorded since December. Large inflows like that typically mean one thing: holders are moving coins into position to sell.

The average size of each deposit also jumped. At 2.25 BTC per transaction, it reached its highest point since July 2024. CryptoQuant pointed to a similar pattern in January, when average deposits climbed to around 2 BTC just before Bitcoin dropped from $100,000 to roughly $60,000 over the following weeks. That comparison is not lost on analysts watching the current move.

Data shows the $76,800 level carries added weight because it represents the average price at which all existing Bitcoin last changed hands — what analysts call the realized price.

When an asset trades near that level, many holders find themselves close to breaking even. The temptation to exit is strong. CryptoQuant says that dynamic capped Bitcoin’s upward move in January, and conditions now are similar enough that it could happen again.

A lower band sits at $67,600, which CryptoQuant identifies as near-term support if the rally stalls and prices pull back. That gives the market a fairly wide range to work with before anything more serious would need to be reassessed.

For now, the data suggests the rally is at its first real test. Selling activity is rising but has not yet crossed the levels that typically precede a sharper reversal. Whether buyers can absorb the supply hitting exchanges in the days ahead will likely decide which direction Bitcoin heads next.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView