Bitcoin Last Line Of Defense Revealed: Can BTC Price Still Go To $40,000?

Bitcoin is currently trading around $66,400, which is almost 48% below its all-time high of $126,080 set in October 2025, and a technical analysis is drawing a line in the sand for the correction. 

According to a crypto analyst known as Leshka.eth, Bitcoin is now approaching a price level that will determine whether this cycle survives or collapses into a full reset. That line is $60,000, and whether it holds may shape Bitcoin’s price trajectory for the rest of the year.

$60,000 As The Important Line Of Defense

According to crypto analyst Leshka.eth, the $60,000 price is now the most important zone for Bitcoin in the current market structure. This level is what the analyst describes as the final barrier that will determine whether a deeper correction plays out to lower price levels.

Bitcoin has been trading around the low $70,000 region in recent sessions, and the past 24 hours have been characterized by another 3.3% drop. Although its current positioning keeps it comfortably above the $60,000 level for now, the margin is no longer wide enough to ignore downside risks.

The weekly candlestick chart shared by the analyst shows how previous breakdowns from similar structures have led to price crashes. However, it is important to note that Bitcoin has not lost the $60,000 price level this cycle, with the early February crash finding a bottom around $63,000. 

This context makes the $60,000 level particularly significant. It has kept on acting as a solid floor throughout the past two months, helping to maintain the higher price structure between $63,000 and $76,000. Therefore, a loss of $60,000 would mean that buyers have lost control of an important structural level that has supported the Bitcoin price throughout the current cycle.

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @leshka_eth On X

The Macro Trendline In Every Bitcoin Cycle

The broader structure becomes clearer when looking at the long-term trendline drawn across multiple Bitcoin cycles. The trendline, which is drawn on the weekly candlestick chart from 2018 through to a projected 2028, connects the deepest cycle lows that formed during extended bearish price action.

In late 2018, Bitcoin topped out, collapsed, and fell to the trendline in 2020 before entering a prolonged accumulation phase near the lows. It then finally surged into the 2021 cycle top. The same structure repeated in the 2022 bear market: Bitcoin crashed from its peak, returned to the macro trendline in 2023, accumulated, and launched into a new cycle that carried it to $126,080 in October 2025.

That trendline is now around the $40,000 price level. According to the analyst, if $60,000 holds, then the cycle survives. If it breaks, $40,000 becomes the bottom and accumulation starts over, Leshka.eth wrote in the post on X.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView