Gold Prices Under Pressure After Hitting $4,600, UBS: Safe-Haven Logic Unchanged But Only Delayed.

TradingKey - Impacted by signs of easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, international gold prices (XAUUSD) rebounded sharply after previously falling to the $4,100 level, at one point climbing to touch the $4,600 mark, but faced significant pressure near the highs and showed signs of a short-term pullback.

Market sentiment generally suggests that the rapid pace of previous gains, liquidity preferences, and concentrated profit-taking are the primary drivers of the current short-term correction in gold prices.

Gold prices rebound sharply after a major slump: What is the underlying logic?

From a price action perspective, spot gold (XAUUSD) has yet to establish effective key support levels following its rapid rebound, and overhead selling pressure continues to mount, while the current rally is primarily driven by "lingering geopolitical risks and cooling inflation expectations."

On one hand, despite Donald Trump signaling a temporary de-escalation, the market has not fully priced in an end to the conflict, and geopolitical uncertainty continues to provide downside support for gold; on the other hand, as energy prices retreated after peaking, concerns over inflation spiraling out of control have eased, leading to a decline in real interest rate expectations, which also created favorable conditions for the gold rebound.

Furthermore, from the perspective of capital flow behavior, short-term trend-following funds and CTA strategies ramped up positions after gold prices broke through key levels; however, as the price failed to sustain its upward momentum, some investors quickly opted to take profits and exit, leading to a pullback in gold prices from their highs.

Gold under short-term pressure: Underlying logic remains unchanged but impact is delayed

Despite near-term pressure, the medium-to-long-term fundamental support for gold remains unchanged.

In a context of persistent global macroeconomic uncertainty, real interest rate volatility, and recurring geopolitical tensions, gold’s value as a safe-haven asset remains intact. Panic-driven sell-offs have flushed out short-term speculative capital, which, from a long-term perspective, may allow gold to rally further.

UBS analyst Wayne Gordon and his team stated: "As the market adapts to expectations of higher interest rates and a stronger dollar—both short-term headwinds for gold—its role as a store of value early in the cycle has come under pressure. However, this is not a failure of gold's safe-haven performance, but rather a delay."

Historically, not all geopolitical conflicts drive safe-haven assets higher. At the onset of a conflict, gold prices may exhibit a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" trend. Despite the safe-haven logic, the realization of short-term events can prompt investors to stay on the sidelines. Coupled with the demand for liquidity sparked by geopolitical outbreaks, gold prices often face pressure, trading sideways or even declining.

Suki Cooper, head of global precious metals research at Standard Chartered, noted that given the significant rise in gold and silver prices over the past two years, some investors are choosing to liquidate positions to cover losses in other assets, such as meeting margin calls triggered by falling equity markets.

From a medium-to-long-term perspective, safe-haven demand remains the fundamental support for precious metals. Short-term adjustments may flush out speculative capital, especially in markets with limited overall capacity, such as Silver (XAGUSD) , where the safe-haven narrative often lacks consensus, making it highly susceptible to sentiment-driven sell-offs and surges.