EUR/USD edges higher above 1.1700 amid hopes for a US-Iran peace deal
- EUR/USD drifts higher to near 1.1730 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- Trump touted great progress towards a final agreement with Iran.
- Traders raise their bets on an ECB rate hike as early as June 2026.
The EUR/USD pair gathers strength around 1.1730 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US dollar (USD) amid hopes for a US-Iran peace deal. Traders will keep an eye on the release of the US ADP April Employment Change report later on Wednesday.
US President Trump said on Tuesday that “great progress has been made toward a complete and final agreement with representatives of Iran.” Trump further stated that he agreed to pause “Project Freedom,” the administration’s initiative to move commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
Earlier Tuesday, Iran introduced a new mechanism governing ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz amid the standoff with Washington over the strategic waterway. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire. Any signs of de-escalation between the two countries could lift the riskier assets, such as the shared currency, in the near term.
Markets are increasingly pricing in the European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike as early as June 2026, with officials hinting at the need to combat sticky inflation. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said on Monday that the ECB may need to raise interest rates in June if the inflation outlook does not improve significantly in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) stance remains firm, with no immediate sign of rate cuts.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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