Social Security's 2026 COLA Has an Unpleasant Surprise in Store for Retirees

Seniors who get a large chunk of their retirement income from Social Security often find themselves asking a key question at several points during the year: "What will my next raise look like?"

For many older Americans, Social Security's cost-of-living adjustments, or COLAs, are extremely important, often spelling the difference between being able to keep up with living costs or falling behind. And so even though the Social Security Administration doesn't announce COLAs until October, many seniors find themselves searching the internet for clues about their upcoming raise ahead of time.

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If you're curious as to what 2026's Social Security COLA might amount to, there are estimates out there already. But you may not like what you see.

Seniors could be in for disappointment

Because Social Security COLAs are calculated based on third-quarter inflation readings, any information that's available today is merely a guess, albeit an educated one. With that in mind, The Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group, has made a COLA projection based on the inflation readings it has to date. And it says that next year's COLA could be 2.4%.

On the one hand, that's an increase from the 2.3% projection the group put out earlier in the year. On the other hand, a 2.4% COLA may be upsetting on several levels. Not only would 2.4% be smaller than the 2.5% COLA Social Security beneficiaries received at the start of 2025, but it would also be the smallest COLA to arrive since 2021.

As it is, 94% of seniors think 2025's Social Security COLA was too low, according to a survey The Senior Citizens League conducted. And many older Americans are worried about their Social Security checks failing to keep up with inflation in the near term. If next year's COLA is even lower than this year's, it doesn't paint the most comforting picture.

Try not to be so dependent on Social Security COLAs

It's unfortunate that so many seniors are reliant on Social Security COLAs to make ends meet. So if you're still working, it's best to take steps to avoid landing in that situation down the line.

Perhaps the easiest way to avoid becoming too reliant on Social Security COLAs is to save consistently for retirement, even if it means starting with small 401(k) or IRA contributions and working your way up over time. And if you can't ever manage to work your way into large monthly contributions, you should know that with a long enough savings window, you can accumulate a lot of money.

Say you can only scrounge up $200 a month for your 401(k) or IRA, but you save that money consistently for 35 years. If your investments generate an 8% return, which is a bit below the stock market's average, you could be looking at a nest egg worth over $413,000. Make it $250 a month, and you're potentially looking at about $517,000, all other things being equal.

While it's too soon to tell what 2026's Social Security COLA will amount to, it's best to assume that it won't be a particularly large raise. Current retirees who get most of their income from Social Security may be in for a stressful year if that's the case (though working and cutting spending could help in that situation). But if you're still working, you have a prime opportunity to avoid a similar fate down the line.

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