Will Nike's Stock Price Sink to $23? Here Are the Bear, Base, and Bull Cases Over the Next Year.

Once an iconic brand, Nike (NYSE: NKE) is in the midst of a turnaround that, while showing some signs of progress, is taking longer than expected. The company is seeing improving wholesale revenue, but slumping sales across its Greater China segment and its Converse brand are still concerns.

While some analyst price targets look favorable, one bearish view, which prices the stock at $23, suggests further downside could be ahead.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

The bear case for Nike

Analysts are generally cautious about what's in store for Nike over the next year. Of the 41 who cover the stock, 32% rate it a buy, 61% a hold, and 7% a sell, according to CNN. And the lowest price target for that group over the next year is $23 per share. From a closing price of $36.80 on Sept. 11, that would represent a potential loss of 37.5%.

Aside from a broad market sell-off, what could send shares that low is continued weakness in sales in Greater China. For its fiscal 2026, revenue for its Greater China segment sank 11% from the prior-year period to $5.8 billion. In addition, while not a major revenue contributor, Nike is still seeing rapid sales declines in its Converse brand, just adding another issue to the pile for the sneaker maker to address. For fiscal 2026, Converse revenue dropped 31% to $1.2 billion.

The base case

Among that group of 41 analysts mentioned earlier, the median one-year price target is $46, representing a potential gain of 25% from the recent closing price of $36.80.

For the stock to rally to that target by September 2027, Nike needs to show sales improvements in Greater China. In addition, Nike is showing progress in expanding its wholesale revenue, which climbed 6% to $27.5 billion for its fiscal 2026. That gives the retailer a bright spot to build off of in its next few earnings reports.

One of the issues that has been plaguing Nike over the last several years is its perceived lack of innovation and keeping up with changes in customers' shopping preferences. To help reverse that, there is enthusiasm around its neuroscience-backed line, Nike Mind, which is another area the company can continue to build on to highlight its return to innovation.

The bull case

The most bullish price target from that group of analysts is $75, representing a massive potential 103.8% gain.

To reach $75 by September 2027, Nike essentially needs to do everything mentioned in the base case, but in overdrive. It would need to handily exceed all expectations to restore investor confidence, with stellar quarter after stellar quarter.

What to consider next

Price targets aren't perfect predictors of where a stock price will head next. What they do offer, however, is a projection that helps aid in determining if the risk is worth the reward.

Nike still has plenty of challenges ahead, and while the $75 price target makes it seem like an alluring investment, it's likely based on the absolute best-case scenario for the stock. In comparison, while that $23 price target may seem like an aggressive price drop, if Nike can't regain investor enthusiasm and reports underwhelming results over the next few quarters, there will be nothing to prop up the stock price and prevent it from falling further.

I'm perfectly fine sitting on the sidelines, waiting for Nike to show more progress over a few solid, consecutive quarters, rather than buying shares now in hopes that the turnaround is finally taking shape.

Jack Delaney has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nike. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.