Oshkosh (OSK) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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DATE

Thursday, January 29, 2026 at 9:30 a.m. ET

CALL PARTICIPANTS

• President and Chief Executive Officer — John Pfeifer
• Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer — Matthew Field
• Vice President, Investor Relations — Patrick Davidson

TAKEAWAYS

• Consolidated Revenue -- $2.7 billion for the quarter, up 3.5%, driven by improved pricing in Vocational and higher sales volume in Access.
• Adjusted Operating Income -- $226 million, down approximately $20 million, reflecting unfavorable product mix and higher manufacturing overhead, partially offset by lower incentive compensation and higher volume.
• Adjusted Operating Margin -- 8.4% for the quarter, down 100 basis points, with tariff and mix headwinds primarily in Access.
• Adjusted EPS -- $2.26 in the quarter; full-year adjusted EPS of $10.79, slightly above the midpoint of guidance.
• Full Year Revenue -- $10.4 billion, "in line" with guidance per CFO Field.
• Share Repurchases -- 912,000 shares bought back for $119 million during the quarter.
• Access Segment Revenue -- $1.2 billion, up 1%; orders exceeded $1.7 billion with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.5; backlog at $1.3 billion, seen as "reasonable" by management.
• Access Segment Adjusted Operating Margin -- 8.8%, impacted by tariffs and adverse mix, partially offset by higher volume.
• Vocational Segment Revenue -- $922 million in the quarter, with an adjusted operating margin of 16.2%; full year revenue exceeded $3.7 billion, up nearly 13%.
• Fire Apparatus Sales -- Up about 17% for the year, with fire truck deliveries increasing 10% in the second half.
• Vocational Backlog -- Exceeded $6.6 billion, providing visibility as capacity investments continue.
• Transport Segment Revenue -- $567 million for the quarter; delivery vehicles accounted for $165 million, representing 30% of segment revenue and growing 13% sequentially.
• Transport Segment Operating Margin -- 4% for the quarter, up from 2.8%, primarily benefiting from pricing on new contracts and improved contract cost changes but offset by NGDV ramp-up expenses.
• Tariff Impact -- $25 million in the quarter and expected to reach $200 million in 2026, up $160 million; approximately three-quarters of the 2026 tariffs are assigned to Access.
• 2026 Guidance -- Consolidated sales forecast at approximately $11 billion, mid-single digit growth; adjusted EPS expected to reach $11.50.
• 2026 Segment Guidance -- Access sales forecast at $4.2 billion (down 6%-7%), adjusted margin at 10%. Vocational projected at $4.2 billion revenue and 17% margin. Transport expected at $2.5 billion revenue, 4% margin, with performance improving in the second half.
• CapEx and Free Cash Flow Guidance -- $200 million in CapEx planned; free cash flow expected between $550 million and $650 million, about 80% of net income.
• Dividend Announcement -- Quarterly dividend set at $0.57 per share; continuation of share repurchases planned through the year.
• Innovation Recognition -- Several CES awards for JLG robotics, hybrid electric Volterra ARF, Volterra electric refuse/recycling vehicle, and collision avoidance mitigation system (CAMS), with field trials underway and commercialization planned.
• NGDV (Next Generation Delivery Vehicle) -- Production surpassed 5,000 units and over 10 million miles driven; on-schedule performance with USPS, with delivery volumes expected to be higher in the second half of 2026 and about half of transport segment revenue for that year.
• Vocational Production Investments -- $70 million spent to date of planned $150 million CapEx for fire truck throughput; targeted reductions in lead times expected from these investments.

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RISKS

• CEO Pfeifer cited "expected lower capital investments at certain of our industrial customers, notably in our access equipment and refuse businesses," contributing to planned declines in Access sales.
• CFO Field stated, "we anticipate that the first quarter will be the lowest quarter of the year as we would traditionally see from seasonal factors," and forecast Q1 adjusted EPS could be "about half of last year."
• Tariff headwinds are explicit, with Field reporting a "$160 million higher" tariff impact for 2026 versus prior year and stating approximately "three quarters is in access segment."
• Vocational segment faces "some pressure in the environmental business with refuse and recycling," resulting in "a little bit of a lull in CapEx, so some downward pressure on that business" for 2026.

SUMMARY

Management reported that adjusted EPS for 2025 reached $10.79, driven by improved price-cost dynamics in the Vocational segment and strong demand pull-forward in Access. Executives forecast 2026 adjusted EPS of $11.50 on consolidated sales of approximately $11 billion, with each segment facing distinct demand and cost environments. Access is projected to decline 6%-7% due to weaker nonresidential construction and higher tariffs, while Vocational is expected to achieve 17% margins and stable revenue. Transport segment performance is set to improve as NGDV volumes increase during the second half, balanced against lower defense export volume and NGDV launch costs.

• CFO Field stated, "We do anticipate price cost to turn positive in the back half of this year," supporting margin improvement later in 2026.
• Innovation initiatives, highlighted by multiple CES and industry awards, are positioned by management as underpinning long-term profitable growth and future deliveries outside the USPS customer base.
• CFO Field clarified capital allocation, noting plans to maintain quarterly dividends and execute further share repurchases, emphasizing Board confidence in sustained cash flow and profitability targets.

INDUSTRY GLOSSARY

• NGDV (Next Generation Delivery Vehicle): Purpose-built USPS delivery vehicle project, featuring advanced safety, productivity, and electrification technologies.
• CAMS (Collision Avoidance Mitigation System): AI-powered safety platform designed to anticipate roadway collisions for emergency vehicles and roadside operators.
• Book-to-Bill Ratio: Orders received divided by units shipped in same period; a value above 1.0 indicates backlog growth.
• RCV (Refuse Collection Vehicle): Specialized truck used for waste and recycling collection, a Vocational segment product category.
• Throughput: Rate of vehicle production and delivery at manufacturing sites.
• FHTV/FMTV (Family of Heavy Tactical Vehicles/Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles): Defense segment truck product programs supporting US armed forces.
• Access Equipment: Includes aerial work platforms and telehandlers, primarily serving construction, rental, and maintenance end markets.
• 8020 Philosophy: Operational improvement methodology that focuses on identifying and optimizing the most impactful 20% of business processes or products.

Full Conference Call Transcript

Patrick Davidson: Good morning, and thanks for joining us. Earlier today, we published our fourth quarter 2025 results. A copy of that release is available on our website at oshkoshcorp.com. Today's call is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation, which includes a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures that we will use during this call and is also available on our website. The audio replay and slide presentation will be available on our website for approximately twelve months. Please refer now to slide two of that presentation. Our remarks that follow, including answers to your questions, contain statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act.

These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our Form 8-Ks filed with the SEC this morning, and other filings we make with the SEC as well as matters noted in our Investor Day in June 2025. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all. Our presenters today are John Pfeifer, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Matthew Field, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Please turn to Slide three, and I'll turn it over to you, John.

John Pfeifer: Thank you, Patrick, and good morning, everyone. I want to thank our over 18,000 Oshkosh team members that work together to deliver strong results in a dynamic external environment. Before we review our fourth quarter and full year highlights, I'd like to talk about the CES show in Las Vegas earlier this month. This was the second year of showcasing our products and technologies that serve everyday heroes by making jobs safe, intuitive, and productive. Our vision for the airport of the future, the job site of the future, and the neighborhood of the future incorporates robotics, autonomy, AI connectivity, and electrification which we highlighted at our booth.

In particular, visitors to our booth saw our concept for a welding robot that utilized a JLG boom lift coupled with autonomous scissor lifts, AI software, and sensing technologies. This concept highlighted our strategy to shift from providing equipment that enables jobs at height to offering equipment that executes jobs autonomously. We believe this technology is also applicable for a wide range of AWP use cases. In addition, we demonstrated how a modular airport robot platform can support the airport of the future. We have trialed a perimeter detection robot at airports and are optimistic about our ability to commercialize this technology in the coming years and expand it to other applications.

Lastly, through an immersive theater experience, we demonstrated how our equipment and technology, including the autonomous jet dock, modular runway robots, and IOPS software, work together in any weather to deliver the perfect turn for airlines, airports, and travelers. Our industry-leading technology also received third-party recognition at the show, winning two best of innovation awards. One for JLG's robotics on the job site, and another for our hybrid electric Volterra ARF. We were also named as innovation honorees for our JLG boom lifts, and our McNeilus Volterra electric refuse and recycling collection vehicle. As the show was happening, we were delighted that our racetrack-inspired collision avoidance mitigation system or CAMS was awarded a CES picks award.

The picks award recognize and celebrate brands at the forefront of innovation. Honoring standout products and creative solutions. CAMS is the first purpose-built technology to anticipate collisions for firefighters and others on active roadways. Following a strong response to our showing this technology at CES last year, we have been field testing the AI-powered solution with fire departments in large cities over the past year, and the feedback has been powerful. We are working on scaling this safety platform to support everyday heroes, such as EMS crews at accident scenes, police officers managing traffic or responding to calls, and even tow truck operators assisting motorists.

The awards we received at CES as well as the resoundingly positive response we received from show attendees, demonstrate how our investments and innovation are creating safer, more efficient workplaces for America's everyday heroes. We are excited about our next-generation products and are confident they will lay the foundation for long-term profitable growth as we transform industries and help our customers achieve their goals. Please turn to slide four for some highlights for 2025. For the year, we posted revenue of $10.4 billion leading to adjusted operating income of just over $1 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $10.79.

As we have discussed on prior calls, the team pulled together across the company to respond to the evolving tariff landscape. Effectively managing our costs, and supply chain throughout the year. We also continued to make strategic investments and strengthened our leadership team to execute on our 2028 goals, as laid out at our Investor Day in June. Please turn to Slide five for a discussion of Q4 highlights. For the quarter, we delivered adjusted operating margin of 8.4% on revenue of $2.7 billion. This led to adjusted EPS of $2.26. In line with the guidance we provided last quarter. Strong performance in both our Access and Vocational segments led to our solid finish to the year.

Turning our outlook to 2026, we see a general continuation of recent economic conditions which includes expected lower capital investments at certain of our industrial customers, notably in our access equipment and refuse businesses. Without an improvement expected in nonresidential construction in 2026, our outlook for the year is for adjusted EPS in the range of $11.50. Our EPS growth compared to 2025 reflects strong performance in the vocational segment, reflecting our higher production throughput for fire trucks and the continued ramp-up of our NGDV in the transport segment. Partially offset by our expectation for weaker market conditions in the Access segment. Matt will provide additional details on segment performance and our 2026 outlook later in the call.

Please turn to Slide seven for segment highlights. Our access team managed through challenges to finish the year on a high note with fourth quarter revenue of $1.2 billion roughly equal to last year and a higher than the third quarter as we benefited from strong demand in advance of 2026 price increases. As you will hear from Matt shortly, we believe that our strong Q4 sales will have an impact on Q1 sales. Orders were strong at more than $1.7 billion leading to a book-to-bill ratio of 1.5 as customers continue to move toward more traditional seasonal ordering patterns. We are pleased with this performance and we continue to work with customers on their plans for 2026.

Our backlog is $1.3 billion which we believe is reasonable in this environment. JLG products serve many end markets in our communities. But the primary driver for demand is nonresidential construction. While we continue to see underlying strength supported by data centers and infrastructure, many other construction sectors remain soft, and we therefore expect revenue in the 2026 to be down compared to 2025. We believe that elevated fleet ages and improving economic conditions in the second half of the year will provide momentum for 2027. As I mentioned earlier, generated tremendous excitement with our technology and vision for the Connect job site of the future at CES.

Customers, analysts, and attendees recognize the value of our innovations positioning JLG to build on its market leadership. We look forward to the CONEXPO show in March, we'll be announcing new products and demonstrating our boom lift with robotic end effector concept that was such a hit at CES earlier this month.

Matthew Field: Turning to Slide eight. Vocational delivered another quarter of growth. Leading to full year revenue of more than $3.7 billion up nearly 13% and a robust adjusted operating income margin of 15.8%. Our fire apparatus business continues to lead the way with sales up about 17% for the year. We made good progress on throughput with fire truck deliveries up nearly 10% in the second half compared to a year ago. We continue to execute our plan to reduce lead times with expected capital investments of about $150 million to support improved throughput across our three key locations with about $70 million spent to date.

The airport products business continues to grow with sales up about 13% in 2025, and we remain confident in our outlook as we see strength in both air passenger and cargo traffic over the long term. Airports and airlines are investing in critical infrastructure and embracing technologies like those we showcased at CES. This provides outstanding opportunities for us to grow this business. Before I turn to our transport segment, I want to briefly touch on our refuse and recycling vehicle business. We're excited about the refuse contamination detection and service technology that we displayed at CES. Which we plan to launch in the first quarter.

This technology uses AI and onboard edge computing to identify 14 different types of contaminants so customers can identify contamination in their waste streams, in order to reduce the amount of recyclables going to landfills. While we have seen a moderation of near-term demand, we believe in the long-term growth of this business and our opportunities to bring technology to solve customer problems. Our backlog for the vocational segment of more than $6.6 billion provides excellent visibility as we expect the segment to deliver meaningful revenue over the coming years, as we improve production throughput as outlined at our Investor Day.

We expect our investments in production will reduce this backlog over time as we build units to meet continued robust demand for our products. Please turn to Slide nine. We made significant progress on transforming our transport business in 2025. You will recall that we changed the name of the segment to reflect the growing importance of the delivery business and the expanded opportunities we see for this segment. About six months ago, Steve Nordland joined Oshkosh as the segment president. Steve's outstanding experience and fresh perspective are shaping both the direction of delivery as well as our defense strategy going forward.

We continue to increase NGDB shipments during the year and are delivering in line with or ahead of USPS expectations. We surpassed the production milestone of our five thousandth unit and are pleased to share that the fleet has exceeded 10 million miles driven. NGDVs now operate in nearly all 50 states including Alaska. Postal workers continue to praise these vehicles, which include modern safety equipment and productivity enhancements that improve their working conditions and are a significant upgrade to the decades-old vehicles being replaced. On the defense side, several key contracts that we announced in 2025 will be important for 2026. As we build and ship units for programs to support the US Armed Forces.

In particular, both the FMTV and the rogue fires programs are essential for our nation's security, and they will become more meaningful in our defense results as the year progresses. And just a little over two weeks ago, we announced a follow-on order for JLTV units for the Dutch Marine Corps. We expect to begin delivering on that order towards the 2026. With that, I'll hand it over to Matt to walk through our detailed financial results.

Matthew Field: Thanks, John. Please turn to slide 10. Consolidated sales in the fourth quarter were nearly $2.7 billion, an increase of $91 million or 3.5% from the same quarter last year. Primarily due to improved pricing in the vocational segment and higher sales volume in the access segment. Adjusted operating income was $226 million, down about $20 million from the prior year primarily due to unfavorable product mix and higher manufacturing overhead costs. Partly offset by lower incentive compensation costs and higher sales volume. As a result, adjusted operating income margin of 8.4% was down 100 basis points from last year.

Adjusted earnings per share was $2.26 in the fourth quarter resulting in full year 2025 adjusted EPS of $10.79 slightly above the midpoint of our most recent guidance. On full year 2025 sales of $10.4 billion, which was also in line with our most recent guidance. During the quarter, as we said on the last call, we stepped up share repurchases to 912,000 shares of our stock for $119 million, supporting our Investor Day target of cash conversion in excess of 90%. Turning to our segment results on slide 11. The Access segment delivered fourth quarter sales of $1.2 billion, up 1% over last year.

Adjusted operating income margin of 8.8% reflected unfavorable price cost dynamics including about $20 million of tariffs. And adverse product mix partly offset by higher sales volume. As we expected, the impact of tariffs was largest on the Access segment during the quarter. Across all segments, the impact of tariffs was approximately $25 million in line with our prior call. We believe that the announced 2026 tariff-related price increases for access products contributed to stronger sales performance in the fourth quarter compared to our most recent guidance. Our vocational segment achieved an adjusted operating income margin of 16.2% on $922 million in sales in the quarter. Sales increased by $42 million with improved pricing partially offset by lower sales volume.

Lower volume in RCVs was partially offset by improved volumes in municipal fire apparatus and airport products. Vocational adjusted operating income increased to $150 million as a result of improved price cost dynamics partially offset by unfavorable product mix within municipal fire apparatus in the quarter. Transport segment sales increased $33 million to $567 million in the quarter. Delivery vehicle revenue grew by $130 million to $165 million and represented approximately 30% of Transport segment revenue during the quarter. Delivery revenue grew 13% sequentially compared to the 2025. As expected, defense vehicle revenue was lower compared with last year due to the wind down of the domestic JLTV program.

Transport segment operating income margin was 4%, up from 2.8% last year reflecting the net impact of changes in CCAs and improved pricing on new contracts. Partially offset by NGDV ramp-up costs. Fourth quarter operating income margin was down sequentially from the third quarter due to the non-recurrence of the one-time sale of the JLT related IP license to the US government. Turning to our expectations for 2026, on Slide 12, we remain on our plan to deliver strong improvements to revenue and operating margin by 2028. For next year, we expect sales to be approximately $11 billion on a consolidated basis which represents growth in the mid-single digits.

We are estimating adjusted operating income to be a little over $1 billion and we estimate that adjusted earnings per share will improve to approximately $11.50. Our sales outlook assumes roughly flat nonresidential construction activity in line with many external projections. We expect lower sales and access, we expect to grow both sales and adjusted operating income for the vocational and transport segments. Also, it's worth noting that we are assuming that the present tariff rates remain in place throughout the year. The rough magnitude of these tariffs is estimated at $200 million or about $160 million higher than 2025.

While we expect full year results to reflect improved performance, we anticipate that the first quarter will be the lowest quarter of the year as we would traditionally see from seasonal factors. We expect the strong fourth quarter 2025 customer response to pricing actions at Access will also adversely impact Q1 volumes. As a result, we believe our adjusted EPS for the first quarter could be about half of last year. Building on John's earlier comments, we believe our second half performance will be more favorable across the segments than in the first half. For the full year, at a segment level, we are estimating access sales to be approximately $4.2 billion with an adjusted operating margin of 10%.

Reflective of softer market conditions in North America. We expect to fully offset the impact of tariffs by year-end. We project vocational sales will be approximately $4.2 billion about equal to our 17%. Supported by a continuation of favorable price cost dynamics and volume growth from improved production throughput. For transport, we expect sales to be approximately $2.5 billion with expectations for operating margin of approximately 4% as we continue to transition out of past fixed price contracts and ramp up NGDB production. Performance in this segment is anticipated to improve throughout the year as we grow revenue on NGDV deliveries, receive follow-on NGDV orders, and billed units under the new FMTV contract.

Our estimate for corporate and other costs is $180 million, and tax rate is approximately 24.5%. Expect to invest approximately $200 million in CapEx, and our estimate for free cash flow is approximately $550 to $650 million or about 80% of net income. We are announcing our quarterly dividend of $0.57 per share, which reflects our expectation of strong long-term cash flow generation and our Board's confidence in our ability to sustain profitable growth while continuing to fund our investments in innovation, and to expand US manufacturing. We also plan to continue repurchases of shares throughout the year. With that, I'll turn it back over to John for some closing comments.

John Pfeifer: Thanks, Matt. We just delivered a solid fourth quarter to complete a great year and we remain confident in our long-term growth opportunities. Driven by our people, innovative products, and strong businesses. We believe our guidance for 2026 continues to support our plans to achieve our adjusted EPS range of 18 to $22 per share by 2028. We appreciate your continued confidence in Oshkosh and look forward to answering your questions. I'll turn it back to you, Patrick, for the Q and A.

Patrick Davidson: Thanks, John. I'd like to remind everyone to please limit your questions to one plus a follow-up, and please stay disciplined on your follow-up question. After that follow-up, we ask that you rejoin the queue if you have additional questions. Operator, please begin the Q and A session.

Operator: Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. Again, we ask that all callers limit themselves to one question and one follow-up. If you have additional questions, you may requeue, and those will be addressed time permitting. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. Participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star key. Moment please while we poll for questions.

Operator: Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Truist. Please proceed with your question.

Jamie Cook: Hi, good morning. I guess just two questions. One, John, on the access guidance or the aerial guidance for the year. I think it's applied down 6% or 7%. You know, relative to United Rentals who came out, and I think their CapEx guide was up modestly. Katz retail sales in North American construction were up double digits. So there just seems to be a disconnect between what I mean, like, what's implied in your guide versus what we're seeing from competitors or peers or customers. So just color there. Is it is there a you know, I guess, so color there. And then, my second question, just on the Transport margins. It sounds like you're ramping as you expected.

I think implied sales are up 20%, the margins of only 4%. I know there's some pricing that needs to happen on the defense side. But just color there on how we think about margins as we exit the year under you said things should get better as the year progresses? Thank you.

John Pfeifer: Yeah. Great, Jamie. Thanks for your questions. I'll take the first one. I'll probably pass the margin question on transport over to Matt. Starting with our access business and your and your question on our outlook, First of all, I wanna make sure I state that we think we're taking a balanced approach to 2026. The market is unfolding right now. Kinda what we all hear about on a regular daily basis in terms of what's going on, meaning, really strong big mega projects and data centers power gen, some large infrastructure projects. So that does drive demand, and then that's very positive.

On the other hand, you've got private nonres construction, which is a huge segment of non nonresidential construction, which is still under some pressure. And we just we read the stats, and we look at the outlooks for these markets. And long term, we feel really good. You know? Eventually, we'll see some of these delayed starts start to come back online. And when that does, that'll be really good news. But right now, we've taken a balanced approach on that. When you talk about United Rentals and what they reported today, last night, I guess it was, versus a lot of other businesses that are out there. They're they're not all the same.

You know, if you're highly if a if one of our customers is highly exposed to these big mega projects, then that's a that's one story. The other story, you've got a lot of independent rental companies that are more exposed to the private nonres, is still under pressure. And that kind of is what leads into our balanced approach on the market and what we're seeing in 2026. You know, for example, manufacturing construction is still under pressure, and that's a big sector of nonresident construction. We kinda need to see that turn a bit. And if we do, in a future call, we'll let you know. Matt, I'll turn it to you on the transport question.

Matthew Field: Yeah. Morning, Jamie. So first, let me just say we remain confident in our 2028 outlook for the transport segment. Our guide in 2026 reflects a number of factors. There's pricing for new contracts, as you mentioned, with FMTV, new pricing coming on in the second half? We'll see steady production increases for the NGDV, We do anticipate further NGDV orders to come throughout the year, And then there's a couple things that are maybe nuances you worth noting. One is we do have lower defense volume in 2026 largely on export orders. And then some investment in new product development, cost and so forth, normal engineering that steps up over the year.

That's what results in the OI of 4% with the back half a bit stronger than the first half. But, again, remain very confident in our 2028 outlook.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.

Jerry Revich: Yes. Hi. Good morning, everyone.

John Pfeifer: Morning, Jerry.

Jerry Revich: John, hi. John, I know you have excellent telematics data from your fleet gauge. Just tell us what you're seeing in The U. S. And European market for your products? You United Rentals spoke about good utilization for your equipment categories. Curious what you're seeing.

John Pfeifer: Yeah. We, you know, we've got a lot of machines out there that are connected Jerry. I mean, in the hundreds of thousands. Like, a lot of equipment that's connected. We've got really good insight into the health of the equipment that's in the fleet, and it is we see it as healthy. And same in Europe. The European fleet's relatively healthy too. So that's good news. Right? And the used market is also pretty healthy. Right now as we see it. You know, the prices in the used market, the amount of supply that's in the used market, it's not in a it's in a healthy state. So I can't you know, we that's all good news.

And I think we're all kind of looking forward and saying, okay. We got a lot of nonres under some pressure, but we've got big mega projects that are growing at a healthy rate. And we're we're kinda all looking for the data to tell us if there's an inflection point. And right now, we don't we don't know exactly when that's gonna happen. We just know that at some point, it will happen. And that gives us the reason for our balanced outlook on 2026 for access equipment. Quarter versus the fourth quarter because the guidance implies a really meaningful earnings acceleration.

So in Access, it sounds like you're expecting under absorption because of the pull forward and of price increases, but maybe we could just unpack that and talk about margin expectations and access it in the first quarter and the transport headwinds, you mentioned sounds like those might be heavier in 1Q than 4Q. Can we just maybe quantify those points just to build the comfort with the earnings acceleration?

Matthew Field: Yes. So our first quarter, as we mentioned on the call, we expect that about half of last year. Most of that decline is in the access segment year on year in terms of the growth And so if you think about that, we had a strong first quarter last year ending flowing through from 2024. This year, we did see very strong sales in the fourth quarter as we just reported. We think that'll have a moderate impact in the first quarter. We also have some adverse price costs.

While we did announce pricing, we do have a full load of tariffs in the back half of the year, we'll start getting some of the cost reductions that we kicked off couple years ago, which progressively increased throughout the year. So that's the large driver of kind of the year over year EPS at roughly half of last year.

Operator: Thank you. Thanks, Jerry. Our next question comes from the line of Mircea Dobre with Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Mircea Dobre: Sorry. I'm gonna have to stick with access equipment too because I am little bit confused here in terms of how we're thinking about the first quarter. Can we can we be specific in terms of what you guys are thinking in terms of year over year revenue decline and margin? And my follow-up, you know, as you as you think about the full year guide, right, I mean, if we're recognizing that the order intake that you had in the fourth quarter maybe as you said, pull forward some of the demand because of the announced price increases.

Where you're guiding the full year revenue at $4.2 billion frankly, is still higher than what your order intake was for 2025. So to me, in that in that guidance, it you do imply that things are, frankly, getting a little bit better. As the year progresses. What's your visibility related to that? I mean, you know, are you hearing that from your customers in terms of how they're deploying CapEx? Or are there some other assumptions that you're baking in?

Matthew Field: So I'll take first quarter and kinda how to think about that and then hand off to John to talk about some of the backlog and how we see the year developing. So, again, for the full year, we're 4.2. As you mentioned, that's about a 6% to 7% decline year on year. We think on a year over year basis, that'll be higher in the first quarter. Again, first quarter last year was very strong coming off Q4 2024. This year, we are seeing a relative weakness in part because of the pricing we announced for 2026, which resulted in strong sales in Q4 so we would expect to see the revenue decline year on year, first quarter higher.

What we have for our full year guide.

John Pfeifer: Yeah. And with regard to how the year is gonna progress, Mircea, so we did in the fourth quarter, our orders were $1.7 billion. Our book to bill was 1.5, and we have a backlog of $1.3 billion. So I always pay attention to we always pay attention to our backlog and how it's how it's continuing to progress. We and I always indicated our backlog is was typically, we say should represent three to six months of demand, and it that $1.3 billion is right in the middle of it when you look at our guide.

We do look at the first half being under a continued pressure because of some of the nonresidential activity that we see we also saw you know, a heavy, shipments in the fourth quarter, which may impact the first quarter a little bit. As Matt just indicated and you indicated with your question. When you look at where our backlog is, and that backlog also shows when customers need equipment because their shipment dates on every order we take. That's what leads to our to our guide of the $4.2 billion which is down a little bit year over year. But kinda consistent with our balanced outlook on where we are with the market.

Mircea Dobre: K. Lastly, if I if I recall, we were looking at $300 million of revenue delivery with these units, the customer is delighted with them. Quarterly at full run rate for 10 million miles, and the customer with When you look at our performance, we are at or ahead of US Postal Service delivery requirements right now. The Postal Service is very happy with the deliveries we're making. And we have a formal schedule that we have to meet. And we're at or ahead of that formal schedule. So when you look at our revenue for the full year, you know, we've always said that we will do between 16,020 units a year on this program.

And in '26, we're right at the low end of that range. We're in that range on the low end side of it. So we continue to do well with production. Sure. We'll produce more units in the second half than the first half, but we're, you know, we're running fairly well with this program. And our customer is very happy with it. If you look at our guide for the transport business, kinda thinking about the revenue side of it, about half of that guide is NGDV or delivery units. To give you kind of some numbers. And it's a little bit more on the back half than the first half.

Mircea Dobre: Alright. Appreciate that. Thank you.

Operator: Thanks, Mircea. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Barger with KeyBanc. Please proceed with your question.

Christian Zyla: Morning. This is Christian Zyla on Steve Barger. Thanks for taking the questions. Just on access, were there any other industry or customer specific ordering dynamics in access that you don't think would recur as we head later into the construction season. Or was it really primarily just the pricing pull forward on top of a regular ordering cadence from your customers?

Matthew Field: Hi, Christian. It's Matt. So certainly, we I'm gonna say there's anything unique. I would just say we had, you know, a strong sale into independents in the fourth quarter. We think that'll reverse out and the year will normalize. For 2025, know, in general, we saw relative strength in independence And I think we all expect that'll that'll normalize more through 2026.

Christian Zyla: Got it. And then maybe a slightly different question. Just at CES, you guys showcased delivery vehicles for non USPS. As your team put together the concept, just kind of what drove you to pursue that plan? Was it the market size or unit economics that you like? Was it the financials? Or kind of the cross synergies? Just any thoughts on that concept. Thank you so much.

John Pfeifer: Yeah. Thanks for the question on CES. We I mean, all of the above, on what your question was. I mean, we you know, when you look at our NGDV, we developed in United States, there's a lot of technology on that vehicle. It's the most advanced last mile delivery vehicle ever put into the market. It provides so much benefit for the operator to be productive, but underscore also safety. Safety for people around the vehicle and safety for the operator. And so in at CES, we wanted to showcase that we have the capability to continue to deliver this type of a vehicle for other segments of delivery market know, these are purpose-built vehicles.

They're not they're not modified Or a body on chassis, which you see a lot Cox vehicles, which you tend to see a lot in the delivery market. These are purpose-built vehicles with technology on them to drive productivity, safety, and economic performance for the fleet operator. And we wanted to showcase that because we've you know, we've we've always talked about future opportunity beyond NGDB. So that was the intent of it.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Angel Castillo: Hey, thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to maybe get a little bit more color Sorry to keep harboring on the access side. But have you said exactly, I guess, how much pricing you anticipate to get in 2026 within your sales guide? And can you just kind of talk about that in a little bit more color just to how much is kind of embedded right now at this point in your backlog? And not just for your arrows, for each segment?

John Pfeifer: Yes. Thanks, Angel. I'll take the question as Great question, of course. So when we look at our pricing plans, you know, course, we've been through a dynamic period. When you look at our the cost side of the equation, it's been headlined by tariffs, tariffs, and more and tariffs in that dynamic environment. So we go to work, and we went to work in 2025 doing a lot of tariff engineering work. To try to do everything we can to take the cost of tariffs and mitigate it.

And a lot of that has to do with engineering, reengineering, you know, our sourcing teams work hard on, where we're sourcing what product, and we try to localize or move product when we need to. So we've done a lot of that work, and we'll continue to do that work. We try to minimize the impact to our customers, but you can't you can't eliminate all of it. So eventually, you have to pass some through in price. So we did we've done that. And we believe that the price increase is reflective of something that our customers can manage as well as something that allows us to stay whole throughout 2026 on the price cost equation.

So that's the gist of it.

Angel Castillo: That's very helpful. And maybe just following up on that point of, you know, localizing cost And one of the big kind of questions we've been getting is just what happens to kind of the bill of materials or just materials cost in general, whether it's from commodity price inflation or memory chips and other things that we're seeing out in the market. So could you just comment a little bit on what's kind of embedded in your guidance in terms of just broader cost buckets?

In particular, for Xtandi, maybe on the access side, if you could just kind of unpack how much is maybe of the cost or the margin potential dynamics here is tariffs versus materials versus mix of independence. Know, or any other kind of buckets here?

Matthew Field: Yeah. Angel, thanks for the question. So on the cost side, I'll give kudos to the access team, which really kicked off a cost reduction initiative going all the way back to 2024, and that progressively has results And so they're continuing to identify cost savings throughout this year. So cost savings are kind of grow cumulatively quarter over quarter. So we'll get more in the back half of this year than the front half of this year. You know, with those actions, with other actions, I'd say overall, we're seeing largely flattish cost set aside tariffs.

And so the team's really doing a great job to manage the cost equation of this and offsetting as much of the tariffs as they can through those initiatives. In terms of mix, you know, we've we've historically seen a higher mix of IR IRCs. I can't be explicit about how that impacts the financials. But, you know, traditionally, that's been 55% NRC, 45% IRC. We think that'll shift kinda more normalized to those levels in 2026.

Angel Castillo: Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator: Thanks, Angel. Our next question comes from the line of Timothy Thein with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

Timothy Thein: I just have one. As on the vocational segment. Can you maybe give some comments in terms of the backlog there and how that's kinda influencing the revenue, what you expect in terms of the revenue composition and in 26. I take it that the RCVs will are likely to step down just given comments in some of the public waste haulers. But maybe if there's some further handholding you can give there in terms of, you know, split across f and e and AeroTech, etcetera. Thank you.

John Pfeifer: Sure. Yeah. Thanks, Tim, for the question. So a vocational, you know, continues to be a great story, a great business for us, will be for many years into the future. The backlog in across the business is really healthy. When you look at the backlog at a as one step down from that, which is your question, the fire backlog is still really healthy. You know, we've had a big backlog. We're continuing to increase capacity, increase output. Yet we continue to see healthy order rates. I mean, customers want our product. So the backlog is really, really healthy in the fire market. It's the same in the airport market with our airport and AeroTech business.

A healthy business conditions, healthy order rates, the stats on both you know, customers are continuing to invest. You see the passenger and commercial demand for airport. It's really good. There is some pressure in the environmental business with refuse and recycling. The business in total is very healthy. And our customers are very healthy in this segment. There's just a little bit of a of a reluctance right now to place a lot of CapEx That's just temporary. We see the long term being fantastic as we had indicated in our investor day through 2028. Just could be a little bit of a lull in CapEx, so some downward pressure on that business. In 2026.

But long term, it's fine. And that and the vocational business will perform exceptionally well even with a little of that blip in 2026. So we feel great about this segment. The segment where we really showcase our technology makes such a big impact for our customers. And that's one of the reasons it's so healthy.

Timothy Thein: Great. Thank you, John.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Kyle Menges with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

Kyle Menges: Thanks for taking the questions, guys. I was hoping we could just go back to the margin and just how to think about the transport margin ramp throughout 2026. And then, Matt, you still sounded confident in hitting the Investor Day target for Transport margins in 2028. So would be helpful to hear some color on how to think about the bridge from transport margin of around 4% in 2026 to meeting the investor day target by 2028.

Matthew Field: Yeah. Thanks, Kyle. So you know, as I think about going from the 4% that we got this year to the 10%, all the building blocks are there. It's just a matter of timing. And so we've talked about is new price on new contracts we're building on our FMTVs sorry, FHTVs now. Which you see in the performance in the 2025. We'll build under the medium contracts, the FMTV, '26. NGDV ramp, so we'll continue to increase our production progressively throughout the year. John mentioned that about half of our revenue for next year, so the $2.5 billion is NGDV, which is right what we said we would be in the long term guide of 3.1.

So you're starting to see those elements come in with us seeing more of that the second half, obviously, than the first half. You will have some launch costs that we pick up in the first half. The other thing just to note is that with that half of the revenue being delivery, then you can see some of the defense decrease year on year from the export orders, and we would expect defense volume to pick up into our future guide a bit as well relative to 2026. So that's kinda how to think about 2026. Again, all the building blocks there, it's just a matter of timing for them.

And then the second half being stronger for the reasons I mentioned earlier.

John Pfeifer: Yeah. We're and we remain really confident on the confident on this going forward. And on the recovery of its margins. We're very confident that continue to progress as we head towards 2028.

Kyle Menges: Helpful. And then a question on AeroTech. Just how do you think you've been able to extract some margin synergies? And what's really the potential to squeeze out some more margin from that And I think you guys have hinted at doing some eighty twenty within AeroTech. So it'd helpful be helpful to hear just what some of those eighty twenty initiatives look like. Thank you.

John Pfeifer: Yeah. Thank you for that question. The AeroTech business is a great business for us. The market that we're in and the synergies that we get between our core synergies and the capabilities of AeroTech, and that's what you see. So the market's healthy. We're continuing to drive technological innovations within that market segment. You already see our autonomous jet docking and autonomous cargo loading. Being deployed right now in so production, so to speak, meaning at gates. There's a lot more technology to come. Technology really helps customers be more productive. And when that the case, it also helps our margins, of course.

But we are we are we do, on the other hand, have operating synergies, and we do eighty twenty similar to the way we do it in some of our other businesses, which is dramatically helped us transform margins over the years. And there's opportunity there for us to continue to get margin through improvement in operating performance. It's not to say that there's anything wrong with the operations of AeroTech. There isn't. But you can always make operations better. You could always do that. And if you ever don't have that mindset, you're probably in trouble. Mhmm. But this is a great business. We expect margins to continue to expand because of technological synergies.

And continuing to be better and better with operations through our 8020 philosophy. So thanks for that question.

Kyle Menges: Great. Thank you, guys.

Operator: Thanks, Kyle. Our next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Steven Fisher: Thanks. Good morning. Just on within the vocational side of things on fire side, just curious how much of a surprise was this municipal mix in the quarter relative to kind of what your expectations were start of the quarter? And what's your baseline expectation of mix in '26 versus '25?

Matthew Field: So what we see in the fire business is some quarters, you kinda have a mix of products that has a bit of a lower margin as you kinda work through the one offs and so forth. What we seen in prior quarters is more batches you've seen us talk about those even on the call. We have, you know, 13, 15 trucks being delivered to a department. In the fourth quarter, we had a few more snowflakes, I guess, I'd say. Than we would have in other quarters, and that resulted in a little bit of adverse mix You know, I don't see that being anything sustained. It's more of a periodic thing.

And over the year and kinda over the long arc, it really gets lost in the shuffle, but it was something we saw in the fourth quarter specifically.

Steven Fisher: Okay. That's helpful. And then just coming back to the cost elements, just curious how much visibility you have to the costs for this year at this point. How locked in are you for what you expect to produce? And then I think, John, you mentioned your expect to be whole on the price versus cost, but just on the second half of the year in particular, is versus cost expected to be positive for that second half? Thank you.

Matthew Field: Yes, Steve. So we have good visibility into the cost at this stage for the year. We think we're in a stable of an environment as we've seen for a while in terms of tariffs at least. And we've got good visibility into our raw material prices as well as our cost reduction initiatives. So we feel we've got a good handle on the cost for the year. We do anticipate price cost to turn positive in the back half of this year. That's one of the drivers of some of the better performance in the second half.

And is a bit of a drag in the first quarter as we work through some of those costs reduction initiatives throughout the year.

Steven Fisher: Terrific. Thank you.

Operator: Thanks, Steve. Our final question comes from the line of Chad Dillard with Bernstein.

Chad Dillard: Hey, good morning, guys. I was hoping you could quantify the incremental tariffs in '26 suppose not by segment, And then also, talked about taking price increases to cover them. In the event that AiEPA gets overturned, I guess, do you think about that? Are you able to maintain the margin? Or do you revisit the pricing discussions with your customers for '26?

Matthew Field: Thanks, Chad. So as I mentioned on the call, full year impact's about $200 million. That's roughly a $160 million higher than last year. I just of that as mostly in access, so about three quarters is in access segment. To put some ballpark numbers on that. If there is anything overturned, our assumption in certainly our planning assumption is that something equivalent will go in place. So our guidance assumes that the present tariff rates sustain throughout the year. I think that's a probably fair assumption based off everything I've read, but you know, as the situation evolves, we'll adapt as we did in 2025.

Chad Dillard: Gotcha. That's helpful. And then I was hoping you could bridge your incremental margins in the vocational business. They're pretty sizable. So I was wondering if could split it out, how much comes from price realization versus volume? And then secondly, you know, with 17%, you're kind of at that midpoint of your long term guidance. So I guess what's stopping you guys from taking that target a bit higher now? Sound like a CFO.

Matthew Field: So we're at 17%. We're really pleased with that margin. It's it's a good step forward. And what you see in that growth and I won't be explicit about the breakout between volume and price cost, but volume plays a larger driver in 2026 than it did in 2025. As we bring on more capacity, John referenced the amount of capital we're investing into our assembly plants for fire capacity. So we started to see that come to the floor in 2026 relative to 2025. Price cost, we do see still favorable in 2026. Then we do have some investments that help us support our business growth that's really what drives the 17%. But that's a great margin.

It is right within the sweet spot of the 16 to 18% we got it in 2028 with revenue growth in the 2028 guide relative to where we are in 2026. So really pleased with the progress we're making in that segment and pleased with the performance we're seeing.

John Pfeifer: Yeah. I'll just say that, you know, we're at we are we're expecting to be at 70% margins. Which we'd all look at and say that's that's good compared to our '28 guidance. So we got a lot of good things still happening in business. A lot of good things on deck to come. So we feel good about it.

Chad Dillard: Okay. Thanks, John.

Operator: Mr. Davidson, I'd like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

Patrick Davidson: All right. Appreciate it, Christine. Thanks for joining us, everybody, on the call today. We will be meeting with investors at several conferences during February and March. We're also looking forward to another CONEXPO show, as John mentioned earlier during his comments on the access business. If you're interested in learning more about our company and our construction equipment leaders, consider a trip to Vegas in March for the show. Last held back in 2023, right, three years ago. So it's a great opportunity to gain exposure to our industries and hear about the new products and technology. Have a good rest of the day.

Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

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