Tesla Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold in 2026?
Key Points
Tesla's stock outlook hinges on the rollout of its robotaxi and its regulatory approvals.
Management's ambitious projections often face delays and skepticism.
Tesla remains a high-risk, high-reward growth stock opportunity.
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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) divides investors, and that's unlikely to change. The company has significant earnings potential from its robotaxi ambitions, but the debate rages on regarding its growth and the timing of the rollout. It's undoubtedly the swing factor in deciding the stock's fate in 2026.
Managing investor expectations
One issue with Tesla is how differently the company interacts with the investment community. For investors, the mantra of "underpromise and overdeliver" should guide every presentation. Management is held accountable for failing to deliver on guidance or public commentary, and many investors judge the company on this basis.
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As such, when Tesla and its high-profile CEO Elon Musk make estimates or predictions around the rollout that don't come to fruition, it's often used as a stick to beat the company with.
Robotaxi rollout
For naysayers, missed expectations stand out. For example, on an earnings call in July, Musk told investors that the autonomous ride-hailing service would "probably address half of the population of the U.S. by the end of the year." Fast-forward to October, and Musk said he expected "to be operating robotaxi in, I think, about 8 to 10 metro areas by the end of the year," including Nevada, Florida, and Arizona.
It's January 2026, and its robotaxis are currently operating with safety monitors in Austin, Texas, and the San Francisco Bay Area.
Image source: Tesla.
Cybercab risk
A similar story is emerging with Tesla's planned ramp for its dedicated robotaxi, Cybercab. In October, Musk outlined plans to ramp production, noting that the "single biggest expansion in production will be the Cybercab, which starts production in Q2 next year." Later, at the annual general meeting (AGM) in November, he said mass production would begin in April.
In response to an investor's question at the AGM relating to the possibility of Cybercabs being produced before regulatory approvals, Musk replied, "I think the rate at which we receive regulatory approval will roughly match the rate of Cybercab production. It will be maybe a little tight, but it's about right."
However, Musk recently said the "early production rate will be agonizingly slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast."
Image source: Tesla.
What it means to investors
The "sellers" will conclude that Tesla is behind in the robotaxi rollout, lacks regulatory approvals, and risks tying up cash and resources in producing Cybercabs without the opportunity to deploy them. It is also fair to be skeptical that regulatory approvals will match production.
On the other hand, Tesla is not an ordinary company focused on meeting investors' expectations for a few cents of quarterly earnings. What Tesla is attempting to do is structurally change the market forever.
Tesla leads the race to revolutionize how consumers think about mobility. If milestones are reached a few quarters later than expected, it does not change the reality that taking a Tesla Cybercab will likely cost a fraction of what a conventional taxi with an internal combustion engine would cost. That's a game changer, and could create huge recurring income for Tesla from sharing ride-hail revenue.
As such, investors have been willing to put aside the delays and look at Tesla as a high-risk/high-reward stock. Such stocks have a place in a growth investor's portfolio.
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Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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