Prediction: Bitcoin Will Not Be Worth $1 Million in 5 Years

Throughout 2025, it was fashionable for crypto market participants and top Silicon Valley insiders to predict that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) would hit a price of $1 million by the year 2030.

But it ended last year under the psychologically important $100,000 price level, and analysts are now busy cutting back their price targets for 2026. Even Cathie Wood of Ark Invest -- who famously predicted back in 2022 that Bitcoin would reach $1 million by 2030 -- has pared back her future growth estimates for Bitcoin.

As a result, I'm predicting that Bitcoin will not be worth $1 million in five years.

Bitcoin's millionaire-maker math

Quite simply, the math doesn't work anymore. The original $1 million price targets assumed a base price of $100,000 in 2025. That works out to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 60%. In other words, the cryptocurrency needed to post annual returns of 60% five years in a row to get to the vaunted $1 million price level.

That's why many crypto watchers were hoping that it would double in value in 2025, just as it had in 2024 and 2023. That would make it more likely that it would hit $1 million by 2030. Instead of a CAGR of 60%, it would "only" need a CAGR of 50%.

Image source: Getty Images.

But Bitcoin actually took a step back in 2025, and that means it needs to grow at an even faster clip over the next four years. Assuming a base price of $90,000 (which is where it is trading at in January), the digital coin would need to post a CAGR of 83% over the next four years.

That's what I'm referring to when I say that the math doesn't work anymore. How many assets do you know that can nearly double in value year after year? Admittedly, Bitcoin has put together some amazing years on a back-to-back basis. In some years, it posted triple-digit returns. But it has never doubled in value for four consecutive years.

The four-year cycle

Also, don't forget about the Bitcoin four-year cycle. Throughout its history, the crypto has been very cyclical, closely following a four-year pattern of boom and bust. Three good years are usually followed by one disastrous year. That's when it can lose anywhere from 50% to 75% of its value.

And that's what has me very concerned right now. The disaster years for Bitcoin have been 2014, 2018, and 2022. That means 2026 is lining up to be another disaster. Just as market weakness at the end of 2021 presaged an epic collapse in 2022, market weakness at the end of 2025 might be presaging an epic collapse in 2026.

If that happens, the math becomes nearly impossible. If, for example, Bitcoin dips below $75,000 in 2026 -- as some are now predicting -- then it would need a CAGR of 137% over the next three years to hit a price of $1 million by 2030. That's a tough ask, even for Bitcoin.

Cracks in the Bitcoin myth?

Of further concern, the crypto is starting to lose its cachet as "digital gold." How can investors possibly view Bitcoin as digital gold when it is coming nowhere close to tracking the performance of physical gold? In 2025, Bitcoin lost 5% of its value, while gold soared by nearly 70%. As a result, it's going to be a lot harder to convince institutional investors to move their money into the digital coin instead of gold.

At the same time, even Ark Invest's Wood has acknowledged that other cryptocurrencies are starting to take on some of the functions of Bitcoin. She specifically points to stablecoins, which are digital currencies pegged 1:1 to the dollar, as taking over some of its payment and transaction functionality. As a result, she recently pushed down her future Bitcoin price target from $1.5 million to $1.2 million.

At the end of the day, the leading cryptocurrency is still a fantastic long-term investment. It has an unparalleled historical track record and phenomenal prospects. But it's foolhardy to assume that it can continue at a CAGR of 60% or higher for years to come, or that the Bitcoin four-year cycle has been banished to the dust heap of history.

For this reason, I predict that it will not reach $1 million by 2030. The math simply doesn't work.

Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.