Social Security's 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Is Set to Give Retirees the Short End of the Stick, Yet Again

For most retirees, Social Security is more than just a monthly deposit into their bank accounts. It represents a financial lifeline that helps them make ends meet.

In 2023, Social Security lifted more than 22 million people out of poverty, according to an analysis from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP), and 16.3 million of these recipients were aged 65 and over. If Social Security didn't exist, the CBPP estimates the poverty rate for adults aged 65 and up would jump nearly fourfold, from 10.1% (with existing payouts) to 37.3%.

Meanwhile, 24 years of annual surveys from Gallup show that 80% to 90% of aged beneficiaries lean on their payouts in some capacity to cover their expenses.

For retirees, few announcements have more bearing than the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) reveal in October. Though Social Security payouts are on track to do something that hasn't been witnessed in almost 30 years, next year's "raise" appears set to give retirees the short end of the stick, yet again!

Image source: Getty Images.

What is Social Security's COLA and why might the 2026 reveal be delayed?

The fabled "COLA" you've probably been hearing and reading about over the last couple of weeks is the tool the Social Security Administration (SSA) has on its proverbial toolbelt to keep benefits aligned with inflation.

Hypothetically, if a large basket of goods and services that retirees regularly purchase increases in cost by 2% from one year to the next, Social Security benefits would also need to climb by 2%. Otherwise, these folks would see their buying power decline. Social Security's COLA attempts to mirror the inflationary pressures that program recipients are facing so they don't lose purchasing power.

This near-annual raise is based on changes to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which has measured price changes for Social Security since 1975. It has more than 200 individually weighted categories, which allows the CPI-W to be chiseled down to a single figure at the end of each month. These readings can be compared to the prior-year period to determine if prices are collectively rising (inflation) or declining (deflation).

What makes the COLA calculation unique is that only CPI-W readings from July, August, and September (the third quarter) are used to determine the upcoming year's raise. If the average third-quarter CPI-W reading in the current year is higher than the comparable period last year, prices, as a whole, have risen, and so will Social Security checks in the upcoming year.

The catch with Social Security's 2026 COLA is that its expected reveal on Oct. 15 may be delayed. The September inflation report is the final puzzle piece needed to calculate the program's cost-of-living adjustment. However, most economic data releases are delayed during a federal government shutdown, which, in turn, can postpone the Oct. 15 COLA announcement set for 8:30 a.m. ET.

A higher prevailing rate of inflation in recent years has led to beefier annual COLAs. U.S. Inflation Rate data by YCharts.

A first-of-its-century raise is eventually headed retirees' way

Once the SSA does have the necessary data to calculate and reveal the 2026 COLA, it's a virtual certainty that beneficiaries will witness history being made.

Over the last four years, Social Security recipients -- retired workers, workers with disabilities, and survivor beneficiaries -- have enjoyed above-average cost-of-living adjustments. From 2022 through 2025, their Social Security checks grew by 5.9%, 8.7%, 3.2%, and 2.5%, respectively. To put these figures into some sort of context, the average COLA increase over the last 16 years was 2.3%.

Based on two independent estimates that were updated following the release of the August inflation report, a fifth-consecutive year above this 16-year average is expected.

Nonpartisan senior advocacy association The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) has pegged their 2026 COLA forecast at 2.7%, while independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson is calling for a slightly higher boost of 2.8%. These two forecasts would imply a roughly $54 to $56 per-month increase in the average retired-worker benefit in the new year.

More importantly, a 2.7% or 2.8% COLA would result in an event that hasn't been witnessed in almost three decades. From 1988 through 1997, Social Security COLAs vacillated between 2.6% and 5.4%. If the 2026 COLA comes in at 2.5% or above, which looks like a virtual certainty based on independent estimates, it would mark the first time in 29 years that benefits will have risen by at least 2.5% for five consecutive years.

Image source: Getty Images.

The purchasing power of a Social Security dollar isn't what it used to be

Unfortunately, this potentially history-making moment won't be fully felt or enjoyed by aged beneficiaries. Though nominal payouts have notably climbed in recent years, the painful reality is that the buying power of Social Security income simply isn't what it once was.

For example, you might be surprised to learn that the CPI-W isn't doing retirees any favors. While this index is designed to mirror the inflationary pressures that Social Security's retired workers are contending with, it has built-in flaws that keep this from happening.

The CPI-W is an index that tracks the cost pressures faced by "urban wage earners and clerical workers," who, in many cases, are workers under the age of 62. By comparison, 87% of Social Security beneficiaries are 62 and above, as of December 2024.

Aged beneficiaries spend their money differently than workers under the age of 62. Specifically, retirees spend a higher percentage of their budget on medical care services and shelter than younger folks. Even though seniors make up 87% of all Social Security recipients, the CPI-W doesn't account for the added importance of shelter and medical-care service costs in the COLA calculation.

Furthermore, the trailing-12-month inflation rate for shelter and medical care services has pretty consistently been higher than the annual COLAs beneficiaries have received. According to TSCL, this disparity has played a role in reducing the buying power of Social Security income by 20% from 2010 to 2024. A 2.7% or 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment isn't going to offset or halt this decline in purchasing power.

To make matters worse, dual enrollees -- those receiving Social Security income who are also enrolled in traditional Medicare -- are expected to see sizable COLA offsets due to a projected double-digit percentage increase in the Part B premium in 2026.

Part B is the portion of Medicare responsible for outpatient services, and the premium for Part B is commonly deducted from a Social Security recipient's monthly benefit. An estimate from the 2025 Medicare Trustees Report calls for an 11.5% jump in the Part B premium to $206.20 next year. For lifetime low earners, this increase might gobble up every cent of their projected 2026 COLA.

Regardless of whether or not Social Security's 2026 COLA is delayed, it'll mark another year where retirees get the short end of the stick.

The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.