Does Tesla's Surprise Delivery Surge Mean Its Sales Slump Is Over?

Back in April, the unthinkable happened.

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) -- the world's largest car company by market cap, the biggest global manufacturer of electric vehicles (EVs), and the maker of the best-selling automobile on Earth in 2023 and 2024 -- posted a year-over-year quarterly delivery decline. Then in July, it happened again.

So investors were bracing for another quarter of shrinking sales when Tesla released its Q3 delivery numbers this month, but instead, the automaker blew expectations out of the water, reporting record-high deliveries of 497,099 vehicles, up 7.4% over the prior year.

So, do these record sales numbers mark a turning point for Tesla and its controversial CEO, Elon Musk? Let's not read too much into this. Here's what's really going on.

Image source: Tesla.

Beating the clock

Although Tesla is a global brand, the U.S. is its largest market, responsible for about 40% of its sales in 2024. And there was a huge incentive to buy a Tesla in the U.S. in the third quarter: The "Big Beautiful Bill" eliminated the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit as of October. That likely pulled a lot of purchases forward from the fourth quarter into the third quarter. After all, if you know you want to buy a Tesla this year, why would you give up a huge discount by waiting until October, November, or December?

This explanation for the surge in Tesla's Q3 deliveries tracks with data from other U.S. automakers. General Motors (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F), and Stellantis (NYSE: STLA) all reported higher sales in the third quarter, largely driven by huge increases in electric vehicle sales. Ford, for example, reported an 8.2% increase in overall vehicle sales, but a much sharper increase of 19.8% in electric vehicle sales (including hybrids), led by a 39.7% increase in F-150 Lightning sales and a jaw-dropping 50.7% increase in Mustang Mach-E sales. At GM, the results were even stronger, with total Q3 vehicle sales up 8% year-over-year, but EV sales surging by 107%.

The record-breaking EV sales numbers from Tesla's rivals put its comparatively puny 7.4% sales increase in perspective.

Sales in Europe look shaky

Tesla's U.S. sales probably surged more than 7.4% in Q3, but were offset by sales declines in its other major markets like China (which accounted for about 30% of 2024 sales) and Europe (about 20% of 2024 sales). While Tesla doesn't release a breakdown of its sales by country, several European markets keep track of new Tesla registrations, which are considered a proxy for its new vehicle sales.

And, boy, do those numbers look bleak. Even though September sales were up 20.5% year over year in Denmark, for example, and 14.7% in Norway, those countries combined represented only about 2% of all Tesla sales worldwide in 2024. Elsewhere, even the bright spots weren't so bright: In September, Tesla sales rose 3.4% in Spain (also 0.9% of 2024 sales), 2.7% in France (2% of 2024 sales), and were flat in the U.K. (which at 3% of 2024 sales is Tesla's biggest European market).

Perhaps Sweden gives us the clearest picture of Tesla's European market woes, though. It only sold 210 vehicles in Sweden in August. In response, the company rolled out new sales incentives for September, including zero-interest financing and a trade-in bonus of about $4,200 per vehicle. Swedish September sales then "surged" by 721% month over month to about 1,700 vehicles, but that was still a year-over-year drop of 65% (!) compared with the 4,792 vehicles it sold in September 2024.

Brace yourself for... not much

These numbers show that Tesla's business hasn't turned a corner. If anything, it's primed for a steeper-than-ever sales decline in the fourth quarter. The federal $7,500 tax credit is no longer supporting U.S. sales, European sales are collapsing despite huge sales incentives, and the company will face a tough comparison to Q4 2024, which represented a then-record for Tesla deliveries.

Even so, the slumping sales seem unlikely to have a major effect on Tesla's stock price. The shares have declined by only single-digit percentages since the Q3 numbers came out, and the stock is still up by more than 6% year-to-date:

If recent sales declines and a bleak outlook for future sales haven't dealt major damage to Tesla's lofty share price, it's unlikely that further sales declines will have any major impact on its valuation, which is now more tied to the company's vision for autonomous Robotaxis and humanoid robots than to its electric vehicle sales.

John Bromels has positions in Ford Motor Company and Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends General Motors and Stellantis. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.