Prediction: Tesla Stock May Be "Dreadful" in 2026

Key Points

• Tesla and other EV makers just lost a valuable subsidy.

• Sales growth in 2026 may disappoint.

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) investors should prepare for a rocky 2026. At least that's what certain experts think. "Next year could be a pretty dreadful year for EVs in this country," warns Adam Jonas, an analyst for Morgan Stanley. Tesla is already struggling with sluggish sales growth. But as we'll see, meager sales growth could get even worse starting this week.

Expect EV demand to drop sharply starting this week

Why is Adam Jonas so bearish on EVs in 2026? Last month, tax credits for EV buyers were eliminated. That essentially adds up to $7,500 to the price tag of most EV purchases. Don't underestimate the upcoming impact. While more consumers are interested in an EV for their next vehicle purchase, these consumers are also increasingly cost conscious. According to Eric Bradlow, an expert on EV demand at The Wharton School, "consumers considering an EV or hybrid are more pragmatic and cost-conscious than current EV owners."

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Due to social pushback against its mercurial CEO, Elon Musk, as well as a relatively stale product lineup, Tesla is already struggling to maintain positive sales growth. Revenue is expected to fall by nearly 5% this fiscal year. Next year, however, sales are expected to grow by nearly 20%. If experts like Eric Bradlow and Adam Jonas are correct, however, Tesla's actual results in 2026 could disappoint.

Investors should be prepared for lumpy sales results. Prospective EV buyers may have accelerated their purchase plans in order to take advantage of tax incentives before they expired in September. This could make next quarter's results look promising. But investors should expect a steep drop-off in sales in the quarters to follow.

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Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.