Thailand: Stable outlook supports Baht – DBS

DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng assesses Thailand’s 2026 election outcome as supportive for political stability and policy continuity. The decisive lead of Bhumjaithai and its likely coalition partners is seen reducing legislative deadlock risks and supporting foreign portfolio inflows, Thai Baht and equities, while lessening pressure on the still-dovish Bank of Thailand to deliver near-term monetary easing.

Election outcome seen reducing risk premia

"Preliminary unofficial results, with over 90% of votes counted, from Thailand’s general elections held on 8 February 2026 indicated a decisive lead by the Bhumjaithai Party, reducing political uncertainty and pointing to policy continuity."

"Although no single party secured an outright majority, Bhumjaithai, with a projected 194 seats in the 500-member lower house parliament, is expected to lead the next coalition government and extend the mandate it received from September 2025."

"With a comfortable buffer of 327 seats, this coalition configuration significantly reduces the risks of legislative deadlock, such as delays to the FY2027 budget progress."

"We see increased likelihood of political stability with a technocratic administration to tackle the economic challenges in the coming years, following a turbulent domestic political landscape since the 2023 polls."

"Foreign portfolio inflows have been supportive in the first two months of 2026 (as of February 9), despite election concerns, and are likely to continue at least in the near term."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)