This technological phenomenon is the worst case scenario for Bitcoin

The debate about the longevity of Bitcoin has been ongoing for years. Most people would say that Bitcoin will end because of quantum technology, however, I believe there’s another answer. 

Ever since Bitcoin debuted in 2009, people have speculated about the survival of this digital currency. Many people believed that it would go to zero, but 16 years later, governments are recognizing its potential as gold 2.0. 

Let’s be real. Bitcoin has proven its reliability as an asset after reaching almost $112,000 per coin. The total market cap of cryptocurrencies hit an all-time high of $3.91 trillion, and most of this money was in Bitcoin. At the peak, BTC had a market cap of $2.227 trillion, while the remaining $1.68 trillion was in the 17,000-ish altcoins. 

Bitcoin is an asset class—other altcoins aren’t included in this category. This is because BTC is among the top 10 assets ranked by market cap according to data from Infinite Market Cap.

Despite the massive success of Bitcoin, there’s a technological phenomenon I believe that would kill the crypto king. 

Quantum computing isn’t the Bitcoin killer

Quantum computing is considered a major threat to Bitcoin. More specifically, quantum computers could break the complex mathematical algorithms that support modern cryptography. It could also make it possible to access dormant wallets and spend any Bitcoins from the Satoshi era. 

Quantum computing originates from two fields: quantum mechanics and computer science. 

Quantum mechanics is a branch of physics. It examines the physics of energy and matter at the atomic and subatomic levels. The behavior of atoms and subatomic particles is unique and classical physics laws like Newton’s laws can’t fully explain it. There are specific principles and phenomena that explain quantum mechanics such as superposition, quantization, etc.

Computer science is the study of computational systems and it includes algorithms, data structure, programming, artificial intelligence, machine learning, cybersecurity, etc. 

Quantum computing takes principles from quantum mechanics and applies them to computing for superior processing power.

But how could quantum computing crack the Bitcoin algorithm? Could it really make it possible to access dormant BTC coins?

Theoretically, if someone builds a powerful quantum computer and obtains your public key, they could derive your private key, forge a valid signature, and spend your BTC. 

This scenario depends on the type of wallet address used, whether the public key has been revealed, and the processing speed of the quantum computer.

All BTC in pay-to-public-key (p2pk) addresses and reused pay-to-public-key-hash (p2pkh) addresses are vulnerable to a quantum computer attack. In a p2pk address, the public key is exposed on the blockchain by default, even before any coins are spent. In a p2pkh address, the public key is not revealed until the coins are spent.

P2pk and p2pkh addresses were dominant in the early days of Bitcoin. The BTC mined by Satoshi Nakamoto are stored in p2pk addresses. 

In 2020, the number of Bitcoins in p2pk addresses was around 2 million coins, while p2pkh addresses had 2.5 million coins. A total of 4.5 million Bitcoins is equivalent to around $490 billion. 

In terms of processing speed, a quantum computer must derive the private key and broadcast a competing transaction before the next block is mined, typically within 10 minutes. 

So if a quantum computer takes two hours to derive a private key from a publicly available public key, it won’t be able to spend the Bitcoins—because transactions are typically confirmed within 10 minutes. However, if the address is reused and receives new coins after the public key has already been revealed, those new funds become vulnerable, and the quantum computer could potentially spend them.

The technological phenomenon that could catalyze Bitcoin’s demise

NEMP stands for nuclear electromagnetic pulse. It’s considered both a technological phenomenon and a weapon. 

As the name indicates, an NEMP generates a pulse of electromagnetic radiation from a nuclear explosion, especially one detonated at high altitude. Instead of causing physical damage, an NEMP is intentionally detonated to generate an intense electromagnetic pulse. 

This results in an extremely high voltage and current surges into anything that conducts electricity — wires, antennas, power lines, computers, electronics etc. In other words, an NEMP will fry every electrical and electronic equipment and device. 

Because of the high altitude, an NEMP explosion can affect thousands of kilometers and impact an entire country or even continent. This means servers, data centers and Bitcoin mining farms are gone in a fraction of a second.

According to a YouGov poll, around 68 to 76% of Europeans and Americans believe that nuclear arms will be used in World War III. Analysts also point to growing tensions between major nuclear powers, including Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, and the US. The recent Israel–Iran conflict, along with US-supported strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, is the closest the world has come to a nuclear war in recent years.  

If a global-scale NEMP attack happens, it could wipe out Bitcoin mining equipment, nodes, internet infrastructure and modern technology as we know it today. In 1949 Albert Einstein said “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”

In such a scenario, one would not be wrong to assume that Bitcoin was not spared.