Bitcoin Holds Below $110K as IBCI Suggests Market in Transition Phase

Source Newsbtc

Bitcoin continues to trade in a range just below its recent all-time high, maintaining a relatively stable price structure despite broader market fluctuations.

As of the time of writing, BTC is priced at approximately $105,756, reflecting a 1% drop in the past 24 hours and a 5.4% decline from its record peak of over $111,000 reached last month.

The asset has been consolidating within this band for several weeks, with no clear breakout yet in sight, indicating a moment of uncertainty or possible transition in market direction. A CryptoQuany analyst known as Gaah has offered insights into this phase of the cycle.

Bitcoin IBCI Suggests Cycle Is Ongoing, Not Exhausted

Gaah recently published an analysis on the QuickTake platform, focusing on Bitcoin’s IBCI (Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicators). According to the post, the IBCI surged above 75% earlier this year during Bitcoin’s rally from late 2023 to early 2024, entering what’s known as the “distribution region.”

Following the correction in BTC price, the IBCI has now leveled around the 50% mark, traditionally viewed as a neutral zone that often precedes major trend changes.

The IBCI’s current position, according to Gaah, may signal a transitional point in the ongoing market cycle. Historically, when the indicator stabilizes in the mid-range, it often reflects the end of a market pullback and the potential beginning of a new upward phase.

Gaah noted that over the past decade, Bitcoin’s bullish phases typically concluded only when the IBCI reached and remained in the 100% zone.

As this condition has not yet been met, the present consolidation could be laying the groundwork for another leg up, contingent on supportive on-chain metrics and broader ecosystem momentum.

The analyst also suggested that the lack of extreme sentiment, whether bullish or bearish, reinforces the view that the market is still evolving rather than nearing a peak.

Suppose BTC price manages to push higher while the IBCI trends back toward the 75%–100 % region. In that case, it may indicate a return to the distribution zone and a continuation of the current bull cycle.

Exchange Activity Remains Subdued as Retail Interest Stalls

In a separate analysis shared on CryptoQuant by another contributor, caueconomy, recent trends in trading activity were examined. Despite Bitcoin trading near historical highs, spot volume across centralized exchanges has dropped to multi-year lows.

While the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs has shifted some volume away from exchanges, the data also reflects limited retail engagement, especially with altcoins. This pattern suggests that current market participation is more aligned with institutional players or long-term holders, rather than speculative retail traders.

Caueconomy concluded that these subdued volumes are not typical of euphoric market phases. Instead, they indicate a more measured participation in the market, which may delay the formation of a local top.

However, should there be a renewed surge in trading activity, especially from retail investors, it could serve as a signal of a maturing cycle or the onset of another significant price move.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
OpenAI Introduces Lowest-Cost ChatGPT Subscription in India with UPI Payment OptionOn Tuesday, OpenAI introduced ChatGPT Go, its most affordable AI subscription tier, targeting the price-sensitive Indian market. Nick Turley, OpenAI’s Vice President and Head of ChatGPT, announced the launch via an X post, highlighting that users can pay through India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI).
Author  Mitrade
Aug 19, Tue
On Tuesday, OpenAI introduced ChatGPT Go, its most affordable AI subscription tier, targeting the price-sensitive Indian market. Nick Turley, OpenAI’s Vice President and Head of ChatGPT, announced the launch via an X post, highlighting that users can pay through India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI).
placeholder
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Climb on Google Ruling Amid Tariff ConcernsS&P 500 and Nasdaq futures climbed modestly on Tuesday evening, fueled by strong gains in Alphabet Inc. after a court handed down a less stringent antitrust ruling than initially feared.
Author  Mitrade
Sept 03, Wed
S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures climbed modestly on Tuesday evening, fueled by strong gains in Alphabet Inc. after a court handed down a less stringent antitrust ruling than initially feared.
placeholder
ANZ Raises Gold Price Forecast to $3,800/Oz, Predicts Rally to Continue Through 2026Gold is expected to continue its upward momentum throughout 2025 and into early 2026, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic challenges, and market anticipation of U.S. monetary easing, according to analysts from ANZ in a research note released Wednesday.
Author  Mitrade
Sept 10, Wed
Gold is expected to continue its upward momentum throughout 2025 and into early 2026, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic challenges, and market anticipation of U.S. monetary easing, according to analysts from ANZ in a research note released Wednesday.
placeholder
Barclays Boosts S&P 500 Outlook Amid Strong AI-Driven EarningsBarclays has increased its earnings and price projections for the S&P 500 through 2025 and 2026, attributing the upgrade to stronger-than-anticipated corporate results in the first half of the year and a robust earnings landscape despite trade tensions and labor challenges.
Author  Mitrade
Sept 10, Wed
Barclays has increased its earnings and price projections for the S&P 500 through 2025 and 2026, attributing the upgrade to stronger-than-anticipated corporate results in the first half of the year and a robust earnings landscape despite trade tensions and labor challenges.
placeholder
Tesla set to beat Q3 delivery estimates on robust U.S. and China demand, says RBCTesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is on track to exceed market expectations for third-quarter deliveries, driven by stronger sales momentum in both the United States and China, according to RBC Capital Markets. The firm projects 456,000 vehicle deliveries for Q3, compared with consensus forecasts of 440,000 (Visible Alpha) and 448,000 (FactSet).
Author  Mitrade
Sept 26, Fri
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is on track to exceed market expectations for third-quarter deliveries, driven by stronger sales momentum in both the United States and China, according to RBC Capital Markets. The firm projects 456,000 vehicle deliveries for Q3, compared with consensus forecasts of 440,000 (Visible Alpha) and 448,000 (FactSet).
goTop
quote