JPMorgan CEO warns markets and central banks are too calm about deficits, tariffs, and recession risk

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned on Monday that Wall Street and central banks are not fully recognizing the growing risks from record U.S. budget gaps to tariffs and tense global politics.

According to a CNBC report, the veteran chief executive and chairman warned that rising prices and the chance of a recession are a bigger threat than the stock market shows.

Speaking at the bank’s annual investor day in New York, Dimon said, “We have huge deficits; we have what I consider almost complacent central banks”. He added, “You all think they can manage all this. I don’t think they can.”

Dimon said traders still have not felt “effective tariffs” and pointed to the swift rebound in U.S. stocks after a 10% slide in April as proof that investors are too calm.

His remarks came three days after ratings firm Moody’s cut the U.S. credit outlook, citing the federal debt load. In recent months, markets have swung on fear that President Donald Trump’s trade moves could lift prices and slow the world’s largest economy.

JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon believes S&P 500 profit forecasts will suffer

Estimates for S&P 500 earnings began the year near 12% growth but have already fallen. Dimon predicted that in six months, the figure will read 0%, forcing share prices to be lower. “I think earnings estimates will come down, which means P/E will come down,” he said.

He estimated the chance of stagflation, “basically a recession with inflation,” at about twice what the market now assumes.

Elsewhere on Monday, Troy Rohrbaugh, co-head of JPMorgan’s commercial and investment bank, said corporate clients are mostly “wait-and-see” on deals.

He expects second-quarter investment-banking revenue to drop by a “mid-teens” percentage from a year earlier, while trading revenue should rise by a “mid-to-high” single-digit rate.

JPMorgan’s chief also addressed the long-running question of when he will step aside. He repeated the same answer from last year, saying he is likely to stay fewer than five more years as chief executive and then up to two years as executive chairman. “If I’m here for four more years, and maybe two more” in the chairman role, “that’s a long time,” he noted.

Consumer banking head Marianne Lake spoke for a full hour during the presentations, the longest slot of any executive. She is seen as a leading contender to replace Dimon, especially after Chief Operating Officer Jennifer Piepszak said she will not pursue the top job.

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