China likely to record a dip in April exports due to US tariffs

Exports of products made in inland China, a long-term pillar of its post-pandemic recovery, appear to be sputtering under the weight of renewed US tariffs by the Trump administration.

China is one of the countries hardest hit by the US-imposed tariffs, which have escalated the geopolitical tensions between the two economic superpowers, with effects spilling across the globe.

Cracks start showing in China’s factory sector

A Reuters poll of 32 economists found that outbound shipments climbed just 1.9% year on year in April, a sharp deceleration from March’s 12.4% surge, which had been driven by firms racing to beat incoming duties.

At the same time, imports are projected to have fallen 5.9%, deepening March’s 4.3% decline and underscoring the drag on China’s $18.7 trillion economy.

Beijing, which only late last year began shifting policy toward boosting domestic demand, has relied heavily on exports to prop up growth since the pandemic’s end. But with US President Donald Trump raising levies on Chinese goods to an effective 145% and China retaliating with duties of up to 125% on American imports, that strategy is under threat.

As officials from both capitals prepare to meet in Switzerland this weekend, markets hope for a de-escalation, but the immediate picture remains grim.

Meanwhile, China’s factory sector is already showing cracks. Official data released at the end of April revealed the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) plunged to 49.0, its lowest reading in 16 months and firmly in contraction territory.

The non-manufacturing PMI, covering services and construction, also eased, though it stayed marginally above the 50 threshold separating growth from decline.

Trade wars weaken China

Zhao Qinghe, a statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics, attributed the downturn to “sharp changes in China’s external environment”. His comments echo a growing consensus that the sudden reversal from front-loaded exports in March to a pronounced slowdown in April is directly linked to the trade war’s chilling effect on business sentiment.

“The weak manufacturing PMI in April is driven by the trade war.”

Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, in a note to clients.

Goldman Sachs has even cautioned that up to 16 million jobs in export-related industries could be at risk if high tariffs persist.

Nomura analysts calculate that the US accounted for just over one-fifth of China’s goods exports in 2024, when re-exports via Hong Kong and alternative routing are factored in, and estimate that about 2.2% of China’s GDP is directly exposed to US duties. They project China could forfeit roughly 1.1% of GDP in the near term if exports to the US were halved.

In response, Beijing this week rolled out a fresh round of monetary stimulus, including liquidity injections and policy rate cuts, aimed at cushioning the blow from the tariff shock. Yet analysts caution that stimulus alone may not fully offset the drag from weakening external demand and a protracted property downturn, which has already sapped domestic consumption.

China’s trade surplus is also set to narrow sharply, from $102.6 billion in March to an estimated $89 billion in April, as the mismatch between faltering exports and still declining imports persists.

With the Politburo pledging support for the most affected firms and workers and the vice chair of the National Development and Reform Commission expressing confidence in meeting the 5% growth target for 2025, policymakers face a delicate balancing act between fiscal support, financial stability and long term economic rebalanced.

In the near term, all eyes will be on the Switzerland talks. A constructive outcome could ease uncertainty and reopen export markets, while a breakdown would likely intensify the downturn. For now, however, April’s data serve as an early warning that China’s export-led revival has lost momentum, and that the world’s second-largest economy may need more than tariffs and stimulus to chart a sustainable path forward.

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