Oil Leaves Bitcoin and Gold Behind Ahead of Wednesday's Fed Decision

Crude oil climbed on Monday while crypto and gold sank. Global markets are splitting ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve rate decision.

Brent crude rose 2.75% to $107.48, and West Texas Intermediate gained 2.51% to $102.56. Bitcoin (BTC), gold, silver, and copper all moved the other way.

Supply Shock Lifts Crude Into Fed Week

Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline late last week after drones launched from Iraq damaged it. The route lets the kingdom ship exports without passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Reuters reported the outage threatens up to 4% of global oil supply. Fresh Houthi strikes on Saudi soil and an attack on a vessel in Hormuz deepened the squeeze.

Yemen’s Houthis also reached Perim island on Friday, tightening their grip on Bab el-Mandeb. That corridor carries 4% to 5% of the global supply.

Crude gained 8% on the week, clearing $100 for the first time since July. The move extends a rally that began in July.

“Looking ahead, unless this week’s talks in Oman produce something operational … the risk is that crude oil continues to extend its gains toward the $119.48 high of early March.” Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, in a Sunday note. 

Gulf states and Iran had planned to meet in Oman on Monday. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said that the meeting was postponed.

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Hike Odds Squeeze Crypto and Metals

Hotter-than-expected US inflation data hardened the case for tightening. Traders now price in an 86.3% chance the Fed lifts its target to 375-400 basis points. That reading sat at 59.4% a week ago and 33.9% a month ago.

Crypto took the hit. Total market capitalization fell 4.32% to $2.62 trillion in 24 hours. Bitcoin traded near $76,718 after a 4.4% weekly slide. Ethereum (ETH) slipped 1.79% to $2,478.43.

Metals offered no shelter. Gold eased 0.22% to $4,340.58, silver lost 0.25% to $64.11, and copper dropped 1.08% to $6.40. The moves echo last week’s gold and crypto selloff.

Crude now trades on supply headlines, while crypto and metals trade on the Fed. Wednesday’s decision will show whether those two forces stay apart.

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