At $76K, Strategy’s Average Cost Meets Bitcoin’s Current Price

Bitcoin’s brief dip below $76,000 this week triggered a 7% drop in Strategy’s stock price. It exposed a structural reality that markets can no longer ignore: the company’s entire 713,502 BTC position now sits precisely at its cost basis.

This stark reality transforms what was once a corporate treasury bet into a market-defining reference point.

When Size Becomes Structure

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, has accumulated approximately 3.57% of Bitcoin’s total supply. This concentration means the company has evolved from being a large holder to becoming part of the market structure itself.

“Saylor isn’t just bullish—he is the market,” noted CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn in a detailed assessment of Strategy’s position. “This is no longer passive ownership. This is market structure.”

The numbers underscore this transformation. As of February 1, Strategy holds 713,502 BTC acquired for approximately $54.26 billion at an average price of $76,052 per coin. When Bitcoin touched $74,500 on Monday—its lowest level since April—the firm’s entire position briefly slipped underwater.

The price has since recovered to around $78,800, but the episode revealed how the $76,000 level has become a mechanical reference point. According to Maartunn’s analysis, roughly 61% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently above the market price, while 39% is below. Strategy’s massive position straddles this equilibrium line precisely.

The Pressure of Continued Buying

Despite the volatility, Strategy announced another purchase: 855 BTC acquired at an average price of $87,974. While this demonstrates continued commitment to the Bitcoin treasury strategy, it also introduces additional structural pressure.

The latest buy raises the marginal cost of Strategy’s holdings and increases capital dependency. More critically, the purchase was made at prices roughly 7% above current market levels, meaning these new coins are already in the red.

“Buying 855 BTC at $87,974 raises the marginal cost, increases capital dependency, adds size which is directly at a -7% loss,” Maartunn observed. “Saylor now owns more BTC above market price than below it. That means dips hurt faster.”

A Different Kind of Leverage

Strategy’s position carries leverage—just not the kind typically associated with crypto trading. The company’s Bitcoin purchases have been funded through equity issuance, convertible bonds, and other capital market instruments.

SEC filings reveal the scope of available funding: STRK preferred stock alone has $20.33 billion in remaining issuance capacity, with additional capacity across STRF ($1.62 billion), STRC ($3.62 billion), STRD ($4.01 billion), and common stock ($8.06 billion).

But this capital market dependency creates a potential feedback loop. If Bitcoin prices decline, Strategy’s stock weakens. A weaker stock price constrains the company’s ability to raise capital through equity issuance. Reduced capital access limits buying power, which removes a significant source of demand support from the market.

“Saylor isn’t levered like a trader, but the balance sheet still amplifies risk,” Maartunn explained. “If BTC dips, MSTR stock weakens, or funding appetite slows—the feedback loop reverses.”

What Markets Actually Test

The current situation invites comparisons to previous structural vulnerabilities in crypto markets—not because Strategy faces imminent collapse, but because its position has grown large enough to shape market behavior.

“We’ve seen this structure before,” Maartunn noted, referencing Terra and FTX. “Not because they were evil, but because too much depended on them. Saylor isn’t there yet. But with 3.57% of total supply, extreme public visibility, price sitting on his cost basis, and continued buying required to defend structure—the setup is clear.”

On-chain metrics reinforce the cautious outlook. Realized Cap remains stagnant, indicating no significant new capital inflows. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) continues to hover below 1, signaling that short-term holders are selling at a loss. Without improvement in spot volumes and ETF flows, any price recovery is likely to lack structural backing.

“Price sitting near your average doesn’t imply safety. It implies focus,” Maartunn concluded. “Markets don’t test stories. They don’t test belief. They test size, concentration, funding structure, and how much price action depends on continued participation.”

For now, the market appears positioned for range-bound consolidation rather than a sharp breakdown—unless the feedback loop linking Bitcoin prices, Strategy’s stock, and capital market access turns negative.