ASML Q4 orders surge, 2026 outlook comes in above forecasts

ASML blew past every single forecast in the fourth quarter of 2025, landing €13.2 billion in bookings, more than double what analysts were looking for.

The number everyone had in mind was €6.32 billion. That was crushed. “This was a record quarter for orders,” said Roger Dassen, ASML’s Chief Financial Officer.

Along with the bookings surprise, ASML also launched a €12 billion share buyback, running until the end of 2028.

And they raised the bar for 2026 revenue guidance, now expecting between €34 billion and €39 billion, which puts the midpoint above the Street’s old €35.1 billion forecast. That implies at least 20% revenue growth from 2024, something the company hadn’t been sure about before.

Customers ramp up chip orders as AI demand stays hot

For the current quarter, ASML expects net sales to land between €8.2 billion and €8.9 billion. The company just posted €9.7 billion in net sales for Q4, slightly above estimates. Net profit came in at €2.84 billion, a bit under the €3.01 billion analysts expected.

Still, no one’s pulling back. “I think it’s primarily on the basis of the more robust view that they have when it comes to demand for AI, which seems to be more sustainable from their vantage point,” Dassen said. “That recognition has led some of our customers to really invest in capacity and gear up their plans for medium-term capacity expansion.”

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. also posted another record profit this month. They’re one of ASML’s biggest customers and build chips for names like Nvidia and AMD. Everyone’s clearly ramping up production.

The shortage of memory semiconductors is also pushing up prices. That crunch is expected to last through 2027, and big players like Samsung and SK Hynix are expected to expand chip production over the next two years. More chips mean more machines. Barclays said it expects SK Hynix to buy 12 EUV machines from ASML in 2026.

ASML confirmed that EUV machine revenue will go up a lot in 2026 compared to last year, as demand for advanced semiconductors keeps rising. These are the most high-tech machines ASML sells.

Layoffs hit as China sales forecast drops hard

Even with record orders, ASML is cutting jobs. The company said it’s letting go of about 1,700 workers, mostly in the Netherlands, with some cuts in the United States.

The decision comes as parts of the company became “less agile,” and the layoffs are meant to fix that, the company said on Wednesday.

China is also turning into a weak spot. Because of export restrictions, ASML isn’t allowed to send its most advanced EUV machines to Chinese customers. That’s hitting its outlook. In 2026, China is expected to make up just 20% of total sales, down from 33% in 2025.

ASML’s position in the chip supply chain is still strong, especially as global demand for AI and high-end memory chips pushes manufacturers to expand. The company’s stock is already up nearly 30% this year, and big orders like these are the reason why.

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