Crypto Winter Could Return in 2026, Motley Fool Warns

Bitcoin closed 2025 with its first annual loss since 2022, and some analysts warn the pain may not be over. With major catalysts exhausted and macroeconomic pressures mounting, the crypto market could face another challenging year ahead.

Sean Williams of Motley Fool warned that the crypto winter could return in 2026, following the pattern of significant downturns every four years seen in 2018 and 2022.

Winter Could Drag XRP Down to $1

He pointed out that Bitcoin’s halving event, Trump’s election, and the passage of the Genius Act are all “in the rearview mirror,” leaving investors with nothing tangible to hold onto.

“Bitcoin is already more than 30% below its 52-week high,” Williams noted. “The prevailing issue for cryptocurrencies is that there aren’t any major catalysts for the new year.”

Williams also predicted that the Bitcoin treasury strategy trend, pioneered by Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), will “turn into one of Wall Street’s biggest duds in 2026.” Most companies following Strategy’s playbook are “unproven and losing money,” with limited purchasing power to sustain Bitcoin demand.

“Additionally, companies embracing the Bitcoin treasury strategy have consistently traded at significant multiples to the net asset value of their digital assets,” Williams wrote. “Paying a double-digit or triple-digit percentage premium to NAV makes absolutely no sense when spot Bitcoin ETFs have made it easier than ever to invest.”

On XRP, Williams made a particularly bearish call, predicting a plunge back to $1. He argued that the favorable catalysts—Trump’s election, the Ripple-SEC litigation resolution, and spot ETF approvals—have already been priced in. He also noted that only about 300 financial institutions use XRP, compared to over 11,000 using SWIFT for cross-border payments.

One silver lining Williams acknowledged: a potential “deluge of spot crypto ETF approvals” in 2026. With 125 cryptocurrency ETFs awaiting regulatory approval as of mid-December, he expects approvals for Avalanche, Cardano, Polkadot, and others, which could help some altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

2025 Recap: Macro Pressures Drive First Annual Loss

Bitcoin’s struggles in 2025 underscore the uncertainty heading into the new year. The cryptocurrency fell more than 6% for the year, ending at $87,474—its first annual loss since 2022.

The year began strong, with Bitcoin soaring on Trump’s election victory and reaching an all-time high above $126,000 in early October. But on October 10, the market plunged when Trump announced new tariffs on Chinese imports and threatened export controls on critical software, triggering more than $19 billion in liquidations—the largest in crypto history.

Analysts say Bitcoin’s gyrations in 2025 increasingly tracked stock market sentiment as traditional retail and institutional investors jumped into cryptocurrencies. This correlation may strengthen further in 2026, with crypto more closely tethered to factors driving stocks and other risk assets, such as monetary policy shifts and concerns over lofty valuations of AI-related stocks.

On the regulatory front, the crypto industry secured major wins under the Trump administration, including the SEC’s dismissal of Biden-era lawsuits against Coinbase and Binance, as well as the passage of the Genius Act establishing federal rules for stablecoins. However, market structure legislation and SEC rule carve-outs that would address core industry problems remain pending, threatening to dampen the industry’s celebratory mood.

Bulls See a Different Picture

Not everyone agrees with the bearish outlook. Some analysts argue that 2026 will deliver the bull run and alt season that failed to materialize in 2025, pointing to a crypto-friendly White House, continued institutional adoption, stablecoin growth, and potential rate cuts as key catalysts. Analysts predict blockchain technology will be deployed in more places throughout 2026.

For bullish perspectives on 2026, see our coverage here.