Bitcoin Bear Cycle Not Confirmed Unless $94K Is Lost – CryptoQuant CEO Explains

Bitcoin has dropped below the $100,000 mark for the first time since May, igniting renewed anxiety across the crypto market. The flagship cryptocurrency is currently trading near $97,000, with traders and investors facing growing uncertainty amid persistent selling pressure and waning momentum. Fear levels have surged as many market participants begin to question whether this breakdown marks the start of a new bear market phase or simply a deeper correction within the ongoing cycle.

Some analysts warn that the recent loss of key psychological support could trigger further downside if buyers fail to defend lower levels. Historical patterns show that once BTC breaks below major round numbers, volatility tends to accelerate before finding a stable base.

However, others remain cautiously optimistic. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, noted that it is still too early to confirm a full-scale bear market. He argues that on-chain data — including exchange flows, miner behavior, and long-term holder activity — does not yet reflect the kind of structural weakness typically seen during cycle tops. Instead, he suggests that the market may be entering a prolonged consolidation phase, where volatility cools before Bitcoin prepares for its next directional move.

$94K Becomes the Line in the Sand for Bitcoin’s Bull Case

According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, the key level that could determine Bitcoin’s next major trend lies around $94,000. On-chain data shows that investors who entered the market between six to twelve months ago have an average cost basis near this level, meaning it represents a crucial psychological and structural support zone.

Ju explains that while Bitcoin’s drop below $100,000 has triggered widespread concern, the market hasn’t yet confirmed a full-blown bear cycle. He notes that price action would need to sustain a breakdown below $94,000 before signaling a significant shift in sentiment and long-term trend structure. “Personally, I do not think the bear cycle is confirmed unless we lose that level,” Ju said, emphasizing the importance of patience amid heightened volatility.

He adds that overreacting to short-term fluctuations often leads to poor decision-making during periods of market stress. For now, the best course of action may be to wait rather than jump to conclusions. If $94,000 holds as support, it could serve as the foundation for a potential recovery. Conversely, a decisive breakdown below that threshold would mark a clear warning sign that the bull phase has likely ended.

Bitcoin Drops Below $100K, Testing Long-Term Support Levels

Bitcoin’s weekly chart paints a concerning picture as the cryptocurrency trades around $96,900, marking its first sustained move below the $100,000 level since May. The breakdown represents a 7.4% decline over the last week, with selling volume increasing significantly — a clear sign that market participants are de-risking amid fear and uncertainty.

The most notable feature on the chart is Bitcoin’s test of the 50-week moving average (blue line), which currently sits near $95,000. Historically, this level has acted as a key support zone during mid-cycle corrections, helping to stabilize price before major recoveries. A confirmed weekly close below this moving average, however, could shift momentum firmly in favor of the bears, opening the door for a potential retest of the $88,000–$90,000 region near the 100-week MA (green line).

Despite the bearish tone, there’s also evidence of potential accumulation. Volume spikes during declines often indicate that larger players are stepping in to absorb selling pressure. If Bitcoin can hold above $95,000 and reclaim $100,000 in the coming weeks, it could form a solid base for recovery. Conversely, failure to defend this area would reinforce the narrative that the market is entering a deeper correction phase.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com